California, the Democratic stronghold, will play a major role in House Republicans efforts to maintain control of lower chambers in 2024.

California was an unexpected battleground in 2016, giving the GOP a slim majority. Next year’s battle could be decided by a few districts within the Golden State, which is largely liberal.

Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist based in Sacramento, said that California will be “critical” to the Republicans’ success in 2024. If they lose three to four seats in California then they will lose the House.

Steven Maviglio is a Democratic strategist based in California. He said that the Democrats’ road to regaining the House will “definitely travel through California.”

In recent days, the focus has shifted to the state after Kevin McCarthy (R) — former speaker of the House and the first person ever to be removed from that position — announced his resignation from Congress by the end this year.

McCarthy’s district should remain in Republican hands. However, the decision to not run for re-election raised questions as to how this could affect other California GOP candidates. It also brought new attention to races that may determine House control next.

Democrats are targeting Republican Reps. John Duarte and David Valadao – respectively from California’s thirteenth, twenty-second and 27th congressional districts. All three won by single-digit margins during midterm elections. Their districts then shifted to Biden in 2020.

Both Democrats and Republicans have their eyes on the Orange County seat in California’s 47th Congressional district, which is vacant after Rep. Katie Porter announced her intention to run for Senate. Major contenders include Republicans Max Ukropina, Scott Baugh, and Democrats Dave Min and Joanna Weiss.

Stutzman said Republicans have “a real shot” of winning the Porter seat.

Democrats running for Porter’s Seat are confident about their chances because of their positions on abortion and endorsements by the Sheriff as well as labor groups.

The Hill reported that Weiss is the founder of the progressive group Women for American Values and Ethics. “The idea that Californians women would not be interested in [the abortion issue] or that voters in the district wouldn’t be interested because they feel that their rights are secure…is frankly wrong,” Weiss said.

Min has received the endorsements of Porter, the California Democratic Party and groups such as the Association for Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs. First generation Korean American, Min also cites his strong performance with Asian American voters for his state Senate victory.

Min stated, “You can take a look at my history, whether I started my career at the SEC, or whether I worked for Sen. Schumer at the Center for American Progress. You know, i have demonstrated a deep commitment in doing what is right and trying make this country better.”

Baugh insisted that McCarthy’s decision not to run for Congress doesn’t affect his race.

“It’s not slowed us at all. Kevin McCarthy will still be involved, and I expect that to continue. Baugh told The Hill that he didn’t believe it would change anything.

Max Ukropina, a businessman who is running for the GOP, has also branded himself the “opposite of a career politician.”

He told The Hill that he and other candidates in California represented a younger generation of business-minded individuals who wanted to win again.

Next year, four other California House seats will be up for grabs. They are held by Republican Reps. Young Kim, Michelle Steel, and Kevin Kiley. Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, rates Valadao and Duarte as “toss-up” seats. Steel’s seat, however, is “lean Republican”, and Kim and Kiley fall into “likely Republican.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has targeted all seven seats plus Porter’s vacant seat.

In a press release, Dan Gottlieb, the spokesman of the House Democrats campaign arm, stated that “vulnerable incumbents John Duarte David Valadao Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert, are stuck between the rock and the far right — pandering the extreme fringes in their party and supporting abortion bans which are wildly unpopular, while their largest benefactor Kevin McCarthy calls it quits.” Gottlieb targeted Baugh’s previous comments about “wokism”, as well as his abortion stance.

McCarthy’s loss has left some Republicans in shock, even though McCarthy stated in an op/ed published in The Wall Street Journal that he will “continue to recruit the best and brightest candidates to run for office in our country.”

Matt Klink, a Republican strategist, explained that “Kevin McCarthy gave Republican candidates hope in California… in the correct district and race on the appropriate issues.” “So, his loss will hurt until someone else steps up to assume the mantle as leader in California,” explained Republican strategist Matt Klink.

Valadao told The Hill that, “nothing will change, no matter what title the former Speaker holds. He’ll still play a major role in helping Republicans to win elections in our state.”

Republican strategist John Thomas stated that although the state GOP did a good recruitment job, Republicans still face challenges in regards to top-of-the ticket candidates and registration.

Thomas stated that the California Republican Party faces greater challenges in registering voters. Thomas said that the California Republican Party faces challenges due to a lack of financial resources and resources. They also face challenges with the top of the ballot, where there is not much motivation for people to vote in large numbers outside of presidential elections.

Republicans in California are confident about their future.

California GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson told The Hill that the state has consistently been the most competitive battleground in the country for House seats, and this will continue in 2024. Her party gained close to 50,000 Republican votes between February and October.

The GOP is optimistic about California House races.

Ben Petersen said in a press release that the total Democrat control over Sacramento and D.C. had unleashed unprecedented inflation, surging violence crime, skyrocketing gasoline prices, and rampant homelessness. “Fed up Californians can count on House Republicans to solve the problem.