Florida has shifted solidly to the Republicans over the past few years, after being traditionally considered a battleground. However, some Democrats believe that President Joe Biden can cause an upset this November.

Biden and Democrats hope to disrupt the party by focusing on several issues, including abortion. Biden and Kamala Harris made trips to Florida, while the campaign named its state leadership team, then opened its first field office, in Hillsborough County, in April.

Harris stated that Donald Trump might think Florida is a given. She made this statement at a Florida event in May on abortion policy. It is your power which will send Joe Biden, me and the White House back together.

The Biden campaign responded to the Washington Examiner by pointing to a memo dated April in which Julie Chavez Rodriguez, campaign manager, explained that there was an opportunity for the President to win Florida’s 30 electoral votes this November.

In the memo, Chavez Rodriguez stated that “Our agenda and coalition, as well as the unique dynamics of this election, make it clear that President Biden will be in a better position to win Florida in this cycle than in 2020.”

“Make no mistake, Florida is not a state that is easy to win. But it is one that President Biden can win, given Trump’s cash-strapped, weak campaign and the serious vulnerabilities in his coalition,” added she.

The campaign has a number of policy positions that it touts to Floridians, including healthcare policy, pointing out Obamacare, protecting Social Security from changes, pushing gun control laws, and investing spearheaded by Biden’s administration, such as the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.

The campaign alleges also that Trump and Republicans have “made Florida the blueprint for [their] toxic and losing agenda”, pointing out education policy including book challenges in school, and gun policy pointing to permitless concealed carry laws passed last year.

Run on abortion again

The Biden camp wants to be the Democrats in 2022, and they want to hammer their abortion position home compared to Trump’s and Republicans’.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican from Florida, signed a bill in April last year that banned abortions after 6 weeks of pregnancy. There are exceptions, however, for cases of rape, child trafficking, incest or saving the mother’s life. The Biden campaign claims that “Florida Republicans are going to be forced into defending their cruel and indefensible backing of this abortion law.”

According to AP Votecast, abortion was not a major issue in the 2020 elections. Only 2% of Florida’s voters said it was the biggest issue facing the nation.

Since the Dobbs ruling, abortion has been a major issue in many races for Democrats and a loser for Republicans. A Florida Atlantic University-Mainstreet Research poll from April showed 13% of voters said abortion is the most important issue for them in November, while a CBS News-YouGov poll from May shows 53% said abortion would be a “major factor” in deciding their vote for president.

Trump’s stance is softer than Florida law suggests, and he argues that it should be decided by each state individually rather than at the federal level.

Floridians are voting on Ballot Measure 4 in conjunction with the presidential elections. This measure would prevent the state from passing laws that “prohibit or penalize abortion before viability, or restrict it when necessary to protect a patient’s health as determined by their healthcare provider”.

The initiative’s supporters claim it will enshrine the right to abortion, while its opponents have said the exceptions in the measure are too vague and may allow abortions without limitations.

Nikki Fried, chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, told reporters that before Florida’s six week abortion ban was enacted on May 1, voters would hold Republicans responsible for abortion restrictions.

Fried stated, “We know that Donald Trump stacked up the court and they overturned Roe V. Wade. From there, Ron DeSantis then passed a 15 week abortion ban, followed by a 6 week abortion ban.”

She added, “Every Republican who voted in favor of the six-week ban will be held accountable. And every Democrat running this election, from our school boards to our U.S. Senate elections, we’ll make sure that every Republican is held accountable for the situation that they just put us into.”

Democrats have the Blues

Fried is confident that voters will turn against Republicans in Florida in November. However, there are a number of factors that work against the blue crusade.

Fried was the last Democrat in Florida to win a statewide race when she won election as commissioner of agriculture in 2018 Fried was one of only three Democrats to win a statewide election in Florida since 2002. The others were former State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, in 2006, and former Senator Bill Nelson in both 2006 and 2012.

Barack Obama, the former president of the United States, was the last Democrat in the state to win both in 2008 as well as 2012. Obama won the state by 74.309 votes in 2012 over Mitt Romney, and by 236,450 over Republican John McCain.

Trump won Florida in both of the general elections in which he competed — beating Hillary Clinton, former Secretary State of State, by 112,911 voters in 2016, and Biden by 371,686 in 2020. Since 2019, it has been his home.

DeSantis was reelected by almost 20% in the recent statewide elections of 2022. The worst Republican performance on the state level was Senator Marco Rubio (RFL) who won by 16.4% or approximately 1,273,325 voters.

Where are all the voters?

A registered voter is another obstacle for Democrats. This advantage has diminished in many states, but it has been the most prominent in Florida.

By November 2020, Democrats had a 106,986 advantage over Republicans in voter registration. According to data from March 31st 2024, Republicans hold an 892.034-voter registration advantage over Democrats.

In a CBS News-YouGov survey released in May, Trump leads Biden by 45% to 54% among likely Sunshine State voters, but there is also strong support for the ballot measure on abortion, with 60% of respondents saying they will support it in November.

Recent polling in swing states has shown that voters are willing to split their ballots. Trump has impressive leads over Biden, especially in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin.