NRSC-Commissioned Poll Suggests GOP’s N.M. Senate Nominee Nella Domenici Has Room to Grow
Since 2002, no Republican has held a U.S. Senate Seat in New Mexico. Republicans hope that Nella Domenici – the daughter of late senator Pete Domenici – a former Bridgewater Associates’ CFO who is a political novice – will challenge Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich this time around.
The Senate Republicans have not prioritized this race as their top spending priority in the current cycle. They are focusing their efforts on redder battlegrounds such as West Virginia, Ohio and Montana to try and regain their majority. If Domenici invests enough in the race, and if the political conditions are favorable, the contest may become more competitive than analysts expect.
Red Oak Strategies’ poll, commissioned by Domenici’s National Republican Senatorial Committee and Domenici himself, suggests that the New Mexico Republican nominee still has some room for improvement five months before Election Day. Her father’s name may also help.
“Even though Nella Domenici is unknown to 66% of New Mexicans, 46% believe that her father, former [senator] Pete Domenici did a great job for New Mexico, and they support his daughter’s run for U.S. Senate,” Domenici’s team wrote in an June 5 strategy note shared with National Review. The memo was based on the results of a survey conducted May 7-9 with 1,800 registered voter. This is a great advantage for the campaign as it begins to reach out directly to voters.
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In the poll, Heinrich led Domenici by only three points among likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent. However, Domenici overtook his lead when survey respondents heard “positive messages about her and negative messages against Heinrich.”
There are few public polls in this race because of New Mexico’s deep blue tint. Election forecasters and political analysts expect Heinrich to win in November. This race is rated as safe Democratic territory by both Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and the Cook Political Report this cycle. Heinrich won his 2012 first race by 5.6 percentage points. He defeated his Republican opponent by 23.6 point six years later. This was in a race that included libertarian Senate candidate Gary Johnson who received 15.4 percent.
In this cycle, Domenici is confident that Joe Biden’s low favorability rating could hurt Heinrich. “Biden’s image is 42 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable. The memo stated that Trump’s image was 39% positive and 59% negative. This decline in Trump’s image is alarming to Democrats who hope that Biden can sweep the state by 10,8 points and carry any lower-ballot Democrat over the finish line.
Domenici’s wealth and her business experience from Bridgewater, Credit Suisse and Citadel Investment Group could pay off on the spending front. Especially if she can swing some large checks from Wall Street connections. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman is one of the contributors to her latest Federal Election Commission report.
If she can even the playing field in terms of fundraising (she has roughly $1 million on her hands compared to his $4.4. As of mid-May, Democratic spending groups could be forced to redirect more money towards New Mexico in order to defend Heinrich’s seat on what is supposed to be a reliably blue turf. This could divert Senate Democratic resources from the many more competitive battleground States that they will need to reduce their losses.
Heinrich has been attacking Domenici on the radio since this week. Heinrich’s first ad was broadcast late last month. According to the issues page of her campaign, she will be focusing on Heinrich’s energy policy, immigration and public safety. She is also expected to take a moderate stance on abortion, opposing a federal ban.
“Nella Domenici will be able to compete with Martin Heinrich in this race. New Mexico is a race worth watching,” said NRSC spokesperson Maggie Abboud.
