Gallego is leading Lake in the Senate race by double-digits.

The former president Trump narrowly leads Vice President Kamala Harris by a few votes in Arizona’s presidential race, while the Democratic nominee is losing ground with women, Hispanics, and young voters.

In a new Fox News poll of Arizona voters, Harris trails Trump in the two-way match-up by 3 points. This is true for both the expanded ballot which includes third-party candidates (47.5%-51%) as well as the standard ballot (48%-51%). Despite the fact that 9 out of 10 voters say they are committed to their choice, Trump and Harris have some supporters who may reconsider their decision.

Harris won the race by one point among registered voters in August (50%-49%), but she lost by two points today (48%-50%). These matchups all fall within the margin for error.

The three-point shift in registered voters is due primarily to movements among young voters and Hispanics.

Harris’ 18 point lead over Hispanics is now down to 11 points, and her 14 point advantage among women has shrunk to just 8 points. Harris’ advantage of 13 points among voters younger than 30 years old has now been reduced to a deficit of 12 points, a shift by 25 percentage points. Even though estimates for subgroups tend to be more volatile, these changes are still notable.

Trump is ahead of Harris with Whites who do not have a college education, rural voters, and independents. He is a slight favorite among suburbanites, because suburban men are more likely to support him than suburban women. By a small margin, more of his voters in 2020 stick with him, than Biden’s voters in 2020 back Harris.

Harris is favored by voters 65 years and older, those with college degrees, urban voters and women. Hispanics and women also support Harris in large numbers. Harris is also preferred by 1 in 4 nonMAGA Republicans.

Trump is ahead of the pack among new voters (defined as those who did not vote in four recent elections) by a margin of 51%-46%.

“Arizona looks tougher for Harris now than it did a month ago,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson who conducts Fox News survey with Republican Daronshaw. If Hispanics and young voters don’t do a U-turn it’s difficult to imagine how she can win.

Arizona voters are more likely to trust Trump in handling immigration and the economy (by 15 percentage points) than Harris (+8). These are important leads and they’re similar to where things were last month. However, compared to Trump’s June lead over President Biden on immigration, his advantage has shrunk by 5 points and on the economy, it is down by 7 points.

Trump also rated better than the average American in terms of safety.

There is little difference in the way the candidates will protect democracy (Harris+3), help the middle-class (Harris+2), fight to make sure that people like you are protected (Harris+2), or bring about the needed change (Trump+1).

Harris is 15 points ahead of Trump on abortion issues, a drop from 22 points last month.

More than seven in ten Arizona voters support the proposed constitutional amendment that would establish the right to abortion. This includes more than two thirds of independents, and over half of Republicans.

Both candidates have similar personal ratings. Harris’ net negative rating is 3 points lower (48% favorable to 51% unfavorable) while Trump’s negative rating is 5 points lower (47%-52%). Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is rated negatively by only 1 point (42%-43%), with 15% not able to rate him. JD Vance, Ohio’s senator, has a favorable rating that is 7 points lower than the national average (40%-47%). 12% of people have no opinion.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points in 2016, while Biden’s victory in 2020 was less than half of a percentage point.

Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, leads Republican Kari Lake in the Senate race by over 10 percentage points. 55%-42% of likely voters back him and 56%-42% of registered voters do. Gallego has the support of most demographics, but women are his biggest supporters. They back him by 23 points over Lake. Six in ten independents, and almost two in ten Republicans also support him.

Gallego supporters who split their tickets and support Trump in the race for president are 15%. Independents are more inclined to support Gallego (16 points) than Harris and Republicans (10 points). Only 3% of those who support Lake vote for Harris.

Poll-pourri

Early voters tend to favor Harris by an average of 11 points. Trump, on the other hand, is more popular among a smaller group of Election Day Voters by a margin 30 points.

Biden’s favorability has declined by 21 points. 39% are favorable, compared to 60% who are unfavorable. This is a significant drop from his positive ratings of 2 points four years ago (June 2020).

The U.S. economic situation is rated positively by 30%, up from 25% four years ago.

This Fox News Poll was conducted Sept. 20-24 under the joint direction Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It includes interviews with a random sample of 1,021 Arizona voters who were randomly selected from a statewide file of registered voters. The respondents were interviewed live on landlines and mobiles (147), or they completed the survey after receiving a message (258). The margin of error for results based on a registered voter sample is +-3 percentage points, and the margin of error for the subsample consisting of 764 likely vote-getters is +-3.5 percent points. To ensure that the demographics of respondents reflect the registered voter population, weights are applied to variables such as age, race and education. Likely voters are calculated using a probabilistic model based on factors such as past voting, interest in current elections, age, education and race.