The number of illegal border crossings increased in July, despite the scorching heat. This is contrary to the historical trend that shows a decrease in migrant arrests in the summer.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection preliminary data obtained by The Washington Post, border patrol arrested more than 130,000 people in July who were seeking to illegally enter the U.S.

In southern Arizona temperatures have been above 110 degrees for most of the past month. CBP data show that border patrol agents in the Tucson sector arrested 40,000 illegal immigrants. This is the highest monthly total recorded for the Tucson area in the last 15 years.

In the past, border crossings tend to decrease during the hotter summer months. In July, on the other hand, it was the exact opposite, suggesting there were other factors at work.

Before the spike in illegal immigration, there was a massive fall in June. Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies told National Review that this was “a temporary wait-and see respite” due to the new, supposedly strict asylum rules, which the Biden Administration imposed following the expiration Title 42, Trump’s Covid policy. Title 42 allowed border agents to send migrants away during the pandemic to stop the spread of communicable disease.

Krikorian argued that the new Biden rule had been hailed as a carrot-andstick policy which allowed border officials to deny asylum requests made by migrants if they hadn’t first applied online, or if they hadn’t applied in a country where they were passing through before arriving in the U.S. Illegal immigrants were informed that they could apply for entry through the CBP One application, which was expanded by Homeland Security in January. The app allows illegal immigrants to make appointments for asylum claims at ports of entry.

The Biden administration, according to the former acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf, has been using the app in order to hide the recent surge of illegal immigration. He told a hearing on derelictions of duty, which targeted current DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, that the app would exacerbate fraud in the asylum system.

Krikorian explained that after the Biden asylum regulations were announced, “smugglers realized they weren’t as tough” and “now traffic is up again”.

Last week, California U.S. district judge Jon Tigar suspended Biden’s new post Title 42 asylum policy. The administration has two weeks to appeal the suspension before it takes effect.

Krikorian stated that the June decrease and July rise were “completely predictable” since asylum policy “was so full of loopholes.” The smugglers believed that it was safe for them to resume operations. In May, a “artificially” high increase was experienced by migrants who were trying to enter the country before Title 42 expired.

Krikorian says the most interesting question is why illegal immigration not only exploded in July, but moved through Arizona instead of Texas.

He asked, “Why is Arizona seeing a rise in numbers instead of Texas?” This is at least partly due to Abbott doing all he can to stop illegal immigration on the Rio Grande.

The administration of Texas Governor Greg Abbott has taken a tough stance against illegal immigration. They have cut down vegetation that is often used as cover, increased the presence of the state police, and installed razor wire on the Rio Grande River bank. The brown buoys, which are typically used to secure maritime harbors, have also been placed on the water. It slides down when someone grabs it. This prevents them from using it to cross a river.

The Justice Department filed a lawsuit against Texas last week to get the state to remove a 1,000-foot-long stretch of buoys near Eagle Pass in Texas. The Justice Department also seeks an injunction that bars Texas from installing any new buoys.

Krikorian stated that the state had implemented these measures in “one of the most bizarre crossing areas along the river” to stop the flow. The state of Texas is clearly seeing results from all the efforts it has made to fill in the gaps that border patrols are not permitted to.

Krikorian stated that smugglers may be moving their business from Texas to Arizona because of physical obstacles. This is not a reduction in illegal immigration but it does divert migrants from Texas.

Yuma’s heat, which can reach 120 degrees at times, may be the reason for the preference.

Erin Waters told The Post that despite the July influx of illegal immigrants, the number of illegal crossings is still far lower than in the months prior to the end Title 42.

Waters stated that “unlawful border crossings are down significantly since the border enforcement plan was implemented and they remain below levels observed when Title 42 was in place.” “We are vigilant and we expect to see fluctuations. Smugglers will continue to spread disinformation in order to exploit vulnerable individuals,” Waters said.

Krikorian stated that it is not wise to compare the illegal immigration figures from before and after Title 42.

He said, “They are just trying to paint a pretty picture on a pig.” Title 42 has a high rate of border recidivism. This is when migrants who have been expelled come back to try their luck again.

Krikorian called the CBP’s optimism “not an encouraging sign.” The border crisis continues to churn along, with occasional fluctuations. But the basic calculus remains the same. You’re more likely to be fired if you get across the border.