Trump Will Win These Swing States If Turnout Mirrors 2014

Republican nominee Donald Trump could win the key swing states of Florida and North Carolina if Republican turnout is the same as it was during the 2014 midterm elections, according to an Alliance/ESA poll released Thursday.

Trump led Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent in the four-way poll, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein tied at 2 percent.

When the high Republican turnout model is introduced, those numbers change to 48 percent for Trump, and 42 percent for Clinton in the 3-day rolling poll. Trump’s lead decreased for the larger 5 day rolling poll. Trump earned 46 percent compared to Clinton’s 44 percent with high voter turnout.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida led Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in every model, including the “strong Democratic turnout” model.

42 Comments - what are your thoughts?

  • Tiger says:

    1.) The Mantra Trump disliked snuffed out, millions upon millions of people voted him their nominee while H was chosen and he was chosen over how many candidates?
    2.) The Mantra Trump hated like H snuffed out by the over 30,000 at every rally, you think they are not going to vote? H has hundreds and can’t even get thousands at her rallies.
    3.) Wikileaks finally piling up so high that the weight of the truth cannot be ignored and if Main Media continues to ignore it they will go down and they will go down in history as corrupt and dirty as her.
    4.) Trump tells it like it is, the more he reveals the more people cling to him and yes he will win.

    1. BOC says:

      Good for you! Big attitude adjustment from several weeks ago! This is 1980 all over again!

  • justinwachin says:

    In the past two years the polls have been remarkably wrong in Kentucky. The Democrat frontrunners in each election ended up losing in a landslide to their Republican opponent.

    Trump supporters need to go to the polls. We need to keep pointing out to people that America will be better under President Trump than under President Hillary Rotten Clinton.

    I have no problem with the polls showing Clinton in the lead. I have no problem hearing that Clinton is so confident that she has already started making cabinet picks. Many of her supporters will hear that and may stay home on election day. The only poll that counts is the one taken in the voting booth. On election day we can send Hillary Rotten Clinton into retirement.

    1. CharlieSeattle says:

      Hillary for Prison!

  • David Stovall says:

    There is the Brexit surprise and everyone was so sure that Harry Truman was going to lose, that the news papers put out headlines after the election: “Dewey Wins” Same with Reagan.

  • Mys77 says:

    Time to crush the demonrats for more f… Clintons. Time for digging their graves.

  • bobnstuff says:

    There is a big IF here. If Trump can keep his mouth shout and not piss off anymore people and if the republicans who say they are voting for him do. It’s nice of the author to give hope to the Trump supporters but is it false hope? we will know in a very shot time.

    1. Elaine Morris says:

      So? What I am hearing you say is: “I want to be smoozed” when they are campaigning…then they turn right around after they are in office and betray us in what they promised.

      Trump is blunt; and to the point. I LIKE Blunt. He makes himself VERY clear. No one can misunderstand him.

      1. bobnstuff says:

        What I’m saying is Trump is loosing to Clinton not because she is a great candidate but because Trump is doing everything in his power to make people hate him. If you want a fourth grade bully as president you can vote for Trump but if he looses it his own fault. You like his bluntness. He is like a blunt tool, good only for destroying things not for building.

        1. Karll says:

          Baloney. It’s the Media who harp about Trump’s
          comments and blow them out of proportion.
          95% of the media is merely the propaganda arm of the
          democrat party. The majority of people are disgusted by them.

          1. bobnstuff says:

            The media gave Trump millions and millions of dollars in free exposure. It’s the media that got him the nomination in the first place. You can’t blame the media for reporting news about Trump. He has created his own problems. You didn’t see Clinton calling into every news station every day or two. You didn’t see tweets from Clinton written at three o’clock in the morning making statements that he would have to run away from the next day. Trump work very hard to get the media to cover him, he got the ball rolling but now it’s rolling out of control and he is complaining. Trump was the little boy jumping up and down shouting look at me, look at me. Now everyone is looking at him and he doesn’t like it.

        2. Elaine Morris says:

          You have the mind and clarity of a 9 yr old child.

          1. bobnstuff says:

            No that’s Trump with the mind of a 9 yr old. I’m a life long republican that he has forced to vote for Clinton since she is the only adult running.

          2. David Stovall says:

            Hillary will do more damage than Trump. She will implement Saul Alinsky teachings.

          3. bobnstuff says:

            Around the same time Hillary was learning from Saul Alinsky Trump was being sued for racism. So Trump is a racist, right. I once read The Little Red Book so I must be communist. Trump has already done damage to our country, damage that will take years to recover from. He is attacking the very base of our free election system. If he is elected, which there seem little chance of he will find a Congress that will either rule over him or stop his every move. Both parties hate him and he will find payback isn’t much fun. If Clinton does the same damage that Obama does I will be relieved. At the beginning of the Obama presidency it look like I was going to have to work till I dropped dead. My 401K had lost most of it’s value. My stocks were doing badly. Now I am fine. I even got healthcare for my wife without having to go through my employer. I have also notices a lack of body bags coming in. Now if we could get a working congress it would be nice. The could fix the ACA and pass a working immigration law.

          4. jug says:

            Boy, are you ever “mixed up”!
            HRC is the most corrupt person in America.
            Her tottaly open borders would bring in such an influx of “squatters”, that life as we know it, would cease to exist in this country.

            The intellect of both you together and her wouldnt make a pimple on Trumps butt!

          5. bobnstuff says:

            If she is the most corrupt person in America then she is also the smartest since the republicans have been chasing her for years and can’t get her. Do you believe that she is that smart and that powerful to hold the republicans at bay all these years. Also please check what her stand on border security is, the real stand not the one the right wing talking heads tell you. If she is a Obama clone as many have said she is she will cut the number of illegals down even more. Even Trump noted all the illegals Obama sent home.

          6. David Stovall says:

            We have immigration law and our own governments break it every hour. And Hillary will flood our schools and hospitals with millions of illegal immigrants. That is the Alinsky, Cloward-Piven strategy, (destruction), that she advocates, not just reading it. She converted.

          7. bobnstuff says:

            Please I ask you to check our immigration laws before you talk about them. They are a joke. They can not be enforced as they stand. Go look for yourself. In order to send someone back to most countries you must have a hearing, they are backed up 60 weeks right now. That law was passed by under Bush. The rest of the rules are equally unmanageable. Don’t take my word or that of anyone else go look them up.

          8. David Stovall says:

            Well we do agree that we must select the least worst.

          9. bobnstuff says:

            Yes it is a choice between to flawed candidates but at least Clinton understands how the government works and the powers of the President. Trump things he is running for dictator. The only amendment he supports is the second and I’m not sure he even supports that one based on things he has said. The good thing is the power of the president is limited. Trump thinks the president passes laws and can do things by himself when in fact he must work with the congress, the very people he is attacking in his own party.

        3. David Stovall says:

          You are right, he is very immature, but there is a chance he will do the right thing in office . We have zero chance with Hillary. So, I must vote for Trump because that is the only way to vote against Hillary. He does love this country, Hillary hates it, loves Saul Alinsky.

          1. bobnstuff says:

            Hillary has spent most of he life in public service, funny job for someone who hates our country. Trump has spent his life trying to make himself rich and trying to pay as little to our country as he can. Trump has a life of putting himself first and his country last. Show me one time Trump thought about his country before his profits. This might be alright for a businessman but not so good for a person holding the highest office in the land.

          2. David Stovall says:

            Tell me you really can ignore the “business” of Hillary selling the office of secretary of State ? She and Bill have enriched themselves , without shame. And with all her dirty dealings , she still wants to steal the furniture. I don’t want her selling our White House. Plus the Alinsky, Cloward-Piven , Hillarycare damage she will do.
            Her “business ” of selling government favors is illegal, at least Trump’s is legit. Her ” life in public service” is nothing to be proud of, it is to milk it and destroy the free enterprise system. Read her idol, Saul Alinsky.

          3. bobnstuff says:

            You can over look all the hard working people who had to sue Trump to get paid? How about all the stock holders who bought Trumps lies in Atlantic City. I don’t see the Clinton’s getting sued by there business partners or for fraud. I bet the Clinton’s could walk into a bank and get a loan. I find you unproven statement very interesting though. Trump has been caught time and time and paid millions in fines and restitution but you support him. The republicans have spent millions and millions of tax dollars with out proving anything but you still think she is guilty. I find your thinking a little off.

          4. David Stovall says:

            Whoa! I am not for Trump! I am against the Hillary -Hillarycare , Alinsky destruction of our country. And her hate for Israel. I am not voting for Trump, I am voting against Hillary’s destruction. So , the only way I can stop her is to vote for her opponent and sadly that is Trump. My wish would be Carson, Huckabee, Cruz, but that is not available yet and if Hillary gets in , we will never get another chance when the open borders destroy our whole system.and we get a one party system forced on us..

          5. bobnstuff says:

            Vote for Johnson then but even Israel doesn’t like Trump. Very few world leaders support Trump and the ones that do aren’t the ones you want on his side. I voted for John Kasich myself. You seem to get a lot of half quoits from Clinton. You seem to believe that she is going to get ride of borders when if you check she wants to make them stronger, improve protection just like Obama tried to do. Go check it out. The only way you get a one party system is if someone destroys the republican party and you can’t blame that on Clinton can you?

    2. Joan Davenport says:

      How about Hillary keeping her big mouth shut and not pissing off anymore people?????????

      1. bobnstuff says:

        If you want Trump to win you want her to say something stupid but she is much less likely to do it, Every word that comes out of her mouth is scripted and thought out. She doesn’t go off in rants and she doesn’t have to take back thing like Trump. Hillary isn’t beating Trump. Trump is.

        1. Karll says:

          The revelations of Hellary’s corruption and deceit are
          what’s beating her, even if her lap dog media does its best to keep it all quiet.

          1. bobnstuff says:

            But the problem is in fact Trump isn’t beating the worst candidate the democrats has had in years. All of Hillary’s miss steps are out there but with all the noise Trump makes who can hear them. Everytime there is a big story about something Clinton has said or done Trump tops her with his own story of something even stupider. I’m sorry but Clinton isn’t beating Trump, Trump is beating himself.

      2. Elaine Morris says:

        Clinton is her own worst enemy.

      3. CharlieSeattle says:

        Hillary for Prison!!!

  • farmboy1993 says:

    We are on our way to Making America Great Again! Go! Trump! Go! Trump! 2016!

    1. PatriotGal says:

      farm boy, from your mouth to God’s ears!!!

      1. Candiceastephens1 says:

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    2. Elaine Morris says:

      I absolutely despise and hate this!
      DOJ Warns Efforts to Stop 2016 Voter Fraud Could ‘Violate’ Federal Law.
      Are you kidding me? That’s why poll watchers aren’t enough. If Trump allegedly loses we need volunteers for every county in this country where he supposedly lost as I explained in my new column today I sent out earlier. The Secretary of State posts election results the next day. They break it down by counties in a particular district.

      DOJ Warns Efforts to Stop 2016 Voter Fraud Could ‘Violate’ Federal Law

      1. bobnstuff says:

        Trump can have poll watchers but only legal ones who follow the law. Trump is asking for a mob. I’m not sure Trump even knows how the election works. He talks about sending people into Philly to “Watch” for voter fraud. Philly will vote for Clinton, 90% to 100% and there will be no fraud involved. I have work the polls as a poll watcher in Pa. and their system works very well. In person voter fraud is so rare that when the state republicans tried to pass a law that would make it harder for Democrats to vote the court stopped it. The republicans even admitted that it was to reduce the Democrats vote.

        1. Elaine Morris says:

          Where in the world did you dream up him “asking for a mob.”?

          What we are talking about is the List of dead people voting, Illegals, and Felons.
          Oooh, excuse me. I am trying to talk and make sense to a Clinton fan.

          1. bobnstuff says:

            Sorry but you have been mislead if you believe that dead people vote in Pa. so has Trump it would seem. To vote in Pa. you must sign your name and it must match the signature on file. They check with both a republican and a democrat watching. Unless you are really good at forgery and have seen the signature it’s kind of hard to do that. In Pa no single party runs the election, both parties are involved. I can’t speak for other states but in person voter fraud is not common in Pa. The poll watchers have strict rules in Pa. They must be registered with the election board, they must stay the whole time voting is going on, can’t leave the polling place even to get lunch, I made that mistake and didn’t bring enough food with me. The number of poll watchers are limited and they must not interfere with voting. They are there to watch and make sure everything is on the up and up. Sending people to stand outside the polling place is also limited and you must stay away from the polling place a specified distance. If you are to close you can be arrested. I know these things because I have been a poll watcher for the G W Bush campaign. How would you like it if outsiders came to your voting place to check on you and ask you if you should be voting. If your in a black neighborhood and a bunch of white men showed up how would it look to you? Be assured the vote in Pa will be honest.

          2. Elaine Morris says:

            Oh! Thank you! That does make me feel better.

      2. TAM44 says:

        She’s about as bright as a burnt out bulb in a mine shaft 500 ft down.

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