As diplomats scramble, Israel says response to Hezbollah to be ‘harsh’ but contained

Blinken calls Herzog and urges de-escalation. The British FM also sends the same message to the Lebanese Prime Minister.

Western diplomats called for de-escalation as the region awaited the expected Israeli response to Hezbollah’s deadly rocket attack on Saturday. Israeli officials said that while the response will be serious, it won’t lead to a full-blown conflagration.

Israeli officials who spoke to Reuters stated that Israel does not want to drag the Middle East in to regional conflict, but rather hurt Hezbollah. Other Israeli officials told the wire services that the IDF was preparing itself for the possibility of a short battle with the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group.

Twelve children died in the Hezbollah attack on Majdal Shams, a Druze village on the Golan Heights. They were playing soccer on a field when they were struck by a rocket that Israel claimed was made by Iran and had a warhead weighing over 50kg.

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Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, visited Majdal-Shams on Monday and said that “these are our children. They are the children of everyone.”

Netanyahu stated that Israel “will not and cannot allow this to pass by.” “Our response will come and it will not be mild.”

According to Reuters, a diplomatic Israeli source who spoke on the condition of anonymity said that “the response is not expected to lead to a full-scale war. That would not serve our interests at this time.”

US Secretary of state Antony Blinken met with President Isaac Herzog Monday to urge Israel, Hezbollah and other parties to refrain from escalation.

In a statement released by the State Department, Blinken said in his conversation with Herzog that he “emphasized the importance to prevent escalation and discussed efforts to find a diplomatic resolution to allow citizens from both sides of Israel’s border to Lebanon to return to their homes.”

According to an anonymous Lebanese diplomatic source, Lebanese officials held a series of phone calls with Amos Hochstein. Hochstein is a senior advisor to US President Joe Biden and frequently deals with delicate negotiations in Lebanon.

The White House reiterated that Israel had every right to respond after Saturday’s attack to Hezbollah, but was “confident” that a larger conflagration would be avoided.

John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters on Monday that US and Israeli officials held conversations over the weekend at “multiple” levels and that the threat of a full-blown war is “exaggerated.”

Kirby told reporters that “nobody wants to see a wider war.” “We’ve all heard of this ‘all out war’ multiple times over the past 10 months. Those predictions were exaggerated at that time, and frankly, we believe they are exaggerated today.”

UNIFIL, the peacekeeping mission in South Lebanon, said that it had intensified its contacts with Israel and Lebanese officials to reduce tensions. “Nobody wants a larger conflict to begin, but an error of judgment could lead to one.” UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti stated that there is still room for a diplomatic resolution.

The Associated Press reported that a Western diplomat whose nation is engaged in diplomatic efforts to avoid a major escalation does not think the Israeli response would result in a full war.

The anonymous diplomat stated that “it’s obvious that [Israel] is trying to make a statement, but not one which will lead to a conflict of any kind.” It’s certain that there will a retaliation. It will only be symbolic. It may be spectacular but that will not be enough to cause both sides to escalate the situation.

Masoud Pezeshkian has warned that an Israeli strike on Lebanon would have grave consequences for Israel.

According to Iranian state-run media, Pezeshkian told Emanuel Macron (French President) that any Israeli attack on Lebanon would have serious consequences for Israel.

In early 2018, Iran launched the first direct attack against Israel. It fired over 300 missiles and drones at the Jewish state. Israel’s air defenses and its allies shot down the vast majority, leaving a 7-year old girl with serious injuries from shrapnel.

The Iranian attack was in response to a alleged Israeli airstrike two weeks prior on a building in Damascus near the Tehran consulate, which killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members, including two Generals.

On Monday, diplomatic activity was brisk in Lebanon as the country prepared for Israel’s response to the Hezbollah attacks.

The office of Lebanese caretaker PM Najib Mikati said that he had “intensive diplomatic contact” after recent Israeli threats. This included a phone call with British Foreign Minister David Lammy who “reaffirmed the call for all parties to exercise caution to prevent an escalation,” according to a Mikati statement.

Lammy announced on social media that, “I called Mikati to express my concern about the escalating tensions and welcome the government’s announcement urging a cessation of violence.”

He said, “We both agreed it is in no one’s best interest to escalate the conflict in this region.”

Ammar Moussawi met also with Abdallah Bou Habib on Monday. This was confirmed by a Lebanese official and Hezbollah official, who both spoke under condition of anonymity.

Bou Habib stressed that “self-restraint is necessary to avoid a war in the region” during his talks with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Henneis-Plasschaert.

Netanyahu and his chief of defense were authorized to make a decision on “the timing and the manner” of the response by Israeli ministers Sunday night.

Hezbollah terrorists are firing rockets at northern Israel since 8 October, provoking Israeli retaliation and increasing the threat of a wider conflict between Israel and Hamas outside Gaza’s borders.

The skirmishes so far have led to the deaths of 24 civilians on the Israeli side as well as 18 IDF soldiers, reservists, and other personnel. There were also several attacks by Syria without any injuries.

Hezbollah named 383 of its members killed by Israel in the current skirmishes. Most were in Lebanon, but a few in Syria. Another 68 terrorists, including a Lebanese army soldier and dozens civilians, were also killed in Lebanon.