In reversal, Israel said to now believe Iran plans to attack in next few days

IDF maintains civilian guidelines as reported reports suggest that Iran may strike by Thursday. US deploys guided missile submarines to the region to expedite strike groups’ arrival.

Many reports on Sunday night indicated that Israel expected a major Iranian strike to be launched in the next few days. However, the military tried to minimize this by stressing instructions to civilians remained unchanged.

The reports were a complete reversal from the previously prevailing assumption that, under intense international pressure, the Islamic Republic had abandoned its original intention to launch a large-scale attack imminently in response to Israel’s assassination on July 31 of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Iran was expected to leave the response up to Hezbollah, Lebanon’s terror group whose top commander Fuad Shukr, who Israel killed in an airstrike on Beirut a few hours before Haniyeh’s murder. Israel accused Shukr of being responsible for many attacks against civilians. This included a rocket attack last month which killed 12 children on a soccer pitch in Majdal Shams, Golan Heights.

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Axios, citing unnamed sources who are familiar with the details of the situation, reported on Sunday that Israel believes that Iran will launch a direct strike on the country in the next few days, perhaps before Thursday’s renewed ceasefire and hostage talks.

Reports said the issue caused divisions within Iran. Masoud Pezeshkian is trying to avoid a harsh reaction, whereas the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) wants to launch an even larger attack. On April 13-14, hundreds of drones, missiles, and rockets were launched by Iran in its first direct attack against Israel. The attack was successful in intercepting almost all of the UAVs and projectiles.

A source cited in the article said that the situation is “still fluid” because of the disagreements.

According to the report, Defense Minister Yoav Galant spoke with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Sunday and informed him that Iran’s military readiness indicated Iran was preparing for a major attack against Israel.

Later, the Pentagon confirmed the call. Austin also ordered the deployment to the Middle East of the USS Georgia guided-missile submarine amid the rising tensions. It is unusual for the US to announce the movements of a sub.

The Pentagon said in a press release that Austin also ordered Abraham Lincoln to speed up its deployment into the region.

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder is the Pentagon Press Secretary. He said that Austin spoke to Gallant, and reaffirmed America’s commitment to “take every possible step” in order to defend Israel. Ryder also noted the increased US military capabilities and posture throughout the Middle East, due the escalating tensions.

The Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group that has been operating in Asia Pacific was already ordered to the area to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carriers which will be returning to the US. Austin announced last week that the Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group would be arriving in Central Command by the end the month.

It was not clear on Sunday what Austin’s new order meant or how quickly the Lincoln could reach the Middle East. The carrier is equipped with F-35 and F/A-18 fighter jets.

Ryder did not mention how fast the USS Georgia guided missile submarine would reach the area.

When asked by reporters Saturday, “What is your message to Iran? “, US President Joe Biden replied “Don’t.”

Kan and Channel 13 News reported on Sunday night that Israel had updated its assessment that Tehran intended to launch a significant attack this week.

Channel 13 reported without citing any sources that Iran and Hezbollah could launch a joint attack, either simultaneously or sequentially. According to the network, French pressure put on Iran and Hezbollah to not launch a major terrorist attack during the Paris Olympics which ended on Sunday delayed the response promised to the assassinations.

IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari stated Sunday evening that the emergency guidelines for civilians have not changed despite growing talk about a large-scale attack.

Hagari, speaking on X, said: “Following recent reports about Iran’s plans we clarify that at this stage there are no modifications to the Home Front Command Guidelines.”

He said that the IDF and defense establishment constantly assessed the situation, with an accent on Iran and Hezbollah. He added that the troops were “deployed with a high degree of readiness”.

Hagari said that if it is necessary to update the instructions, they will be updated in a timely manner on official channels.

Many major airlines have cancelled or delayed their flights to Israel as well as to other countries within the region due to the escalating tensions.

Gallant had earlier told military recruits on Sunday that Israel would act in a way it has never before operated if Iran and Hezbollah were to attack it in an unprecedented manner.

“We have significant abilities.” “I hope they consider this and don’t start a war in new fronts,” he said to the recruits of the Tel Hashomer base.

He said that Israel is fighting to survive in an “hostile environment.”

He told the recruits they were joining at a time that was both “challenging and significant” in history.