In May last year, Iran’s former president took a victory lap on the first visit of an Iranian leader in Syria since 2010.

Ebrahim Raisi thanked Bashar Assad, a key ally, for his “victory” in rebuffing rebel forces and retaining power despite sanctions with the help of Iran and Russia.

In less than a calendar year, Iran’s influence in the region has deteriorated, not only in Syria, but also across the entire region.

Assad was ousted in December after a rebel lightning campaign. On Tuesday, Western officials told The Wall Street Journal Syria had withdrawn the majority of its troops from a country that once sat at the center of its strategy for projecting power throughout the Middle East.

In the aftermath of the terror attacks on October 7, 2023 in Israel, Syria’s regional allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah have been decimated.

Israel’s strikes in October last year also caused serious damage to Iran’s air defences.

In the end, Donald Trump, who is set to become president, will face a weaker Iran, an old US enemy, than in recent decades.

Iran weakened

Jon Alterman, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, said to BI that Iran has suffered a number setbacks over the past year.

Hezbollah, its most important regional proxy, is the worst hit. “The billions of dollars Iran invested in Syria for several decades have gone up in flames,” he said.

Alterman stated that it was “hard to pinpoint a single trend” which has moved in their direction over the past few months.

Iran has been pursuing its core objectives of destroying US influence, challenging Saudi Arabian authority, and encircling Israel for decades by building a regional network of militias.

Iran has dubbed these groups “Axis of Resistance” which includes the Houthi in Yemen, and Shia in Iraq.

In the aftermath of the attacks by Israel and allies, the Arabs are on the defensive. Israel and the US recently struck Houthi targets on Yemen.

Mathew Burrows told BI that Tehran may feel surrounded by hostile countries, rather than Israel.

He added that “Iran’s strategy of containment against Israel has been shattered”.

Trouble at home

The domestic situation is not much better.

Iran’s economy was crippled because of punishing international sanctions. These included those imposed by Trump during his first term as president, in the context of his “maximum-pressure” campaign.

Iran’s December decision to cut off energy to vast areas of the country was linked to sanctions.

Iran’s currency has also plummeted in value, while inflation is at 30%.

Iran is also facing a number of diplomatic issues.

Stefan Wolff is a professor at Birmingham University, UK, who specializes in international security. He said that Russia and China are unwilling or unable to assist.

He said that “Russia’s stature has been greatly diminished in the region.”

Russia, a major supporter of Assad’s, was stretched thin by the war in Ukraine and seemed unable to do more than fly him and his family from the country.

China is playing a more assertive part in the Middle East but also seems unwilling to directly get involved in Iran’s conflict.

Burcu Ozcelik is a senior researcher for Middle East Security in London’s RUSI Think Tank. He told BI that Iran has suffered substantial losses over a relatively brief period.

Now it must contend with the new Trump administration.

Trump is back!

Trump has imposed a wave of sanctions against Iran during his first tenure in office.

In 2020, he also ordered the killing of Iranian military chief Maj. Gen. Qassem Solimani in Iraq and, under the Abraham Accords, aimed to normalize relations between Israel and Gulf Arab States.

In his second term Trump may seek to intensify his strategy of maximum pressure by weakening the influence of Iran in Iraq where it controls a militia network.

Ozcelik said that the next target would be Iraq, “with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi in Yemen being under pressure.”

She added, “This could empower Iraqi sovereignty and institutions in the face exponentially growing Iranian influence.”

Iran is not out yet, despite the fact that it may have been down.

Although weakened, its allies including Houthi, and Hezbollah will rebuild. Iran could also try to inflame conflict to destabilize Syria’s new government. It has a sophisticated intelligence and military apparatus.

Analysts say that it still has the capability to create the most deadly weapon of all – a nuclear warhead.

Iran began quietly re-energizing its nuclear program after Trump abandoned the nuclear agreement signed by Obama. Some experts think it could produce enough material to build a nuclear weapon within months.

Alterman said that some analysts believe Iran’s weakening will force it to increase its efforts to develop nuclear weapons to compensate or, at the very least, to threaten to do so in order to improve Iran’s leverage during negotiations.

Burrows said, “The only weapon that is real in the near future is nuclear.”

The biggest challenge that Trump faces is how to prevent it from getting one.