In the days to come, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to shake hands with a number of world leaders including China’s Xi Jinping and India’s NarendraModi. Also, Recep Tayyip Erdoan, Turkey’s Recep T. Erdogan, and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian will also be present.

All of them will be in Kazan, Russia on Tuesday to attend a meeting of BRICS, the bloc of developing countries. This is despite predictions that the conflict in Ukraine and the international arrest warrant for Putin would make him a pariah.

This year, the alliance has expanded rapidly. Initially, it included Brazil, Russia and India. Iran, Egypt Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia joined the alliance in January. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Malaysia and other countries expressed their desire to join.

Russian officials have already hailed it as a huge success. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s aide for foreign policy, said that 32 countries have confirmed their participation and more than twenty will be sending heads of state. Ushakov stated that Putin will have around 20 bilateral meetings and that the summit could become “the largest event in foreign policy ever held on Russian soil”.

Kremlin deals and optics

Analysts believe that the Kremlin is interested in both the optics and practicality of working with allies to support Russia’s war effort and economy. The other participants will have the chance to amplify their voices and narratives.

Alexander Gabuyev is the director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre. He says, “The beauty of BRICS that you don’t have too many obligations.” There aren’t many obligations to joining BRICS. There could be some interesting opportunities for you, such as getting more face-to-face time with these leaders.

Gabuyev believes that the summit is significant for Putin personally, because it shows how Western attempts to isolate him have failed.

He says the gathering will show at home and abroad “that Russia is really an important actor that is leading this group that will end Western dominance – that’s his own narrative.”

The Kremlin can talk with major players such as India and China to expand trade and bypass Western sanctions. Gabuyev claims that India is a major market for Russian products, and Moscow is hoping to gain access to dual-use goods as well as other military-related items in China.

Russia wants to see more countries participate in a project to create a payment system that could be used as an alternative to SWIFT (the global messaging network for banks), allowing Moscow and its partners to do business without fear of sanctions.

Gabuyev stated that the Russians believed that the U.S. would not sanction a platform that included China, Russia and India, as well as Brazil and Saudi Arabia. These countries are important partners of the U.S.

Iran and China: Goals

Russia is also expected to sign an “all-encompassing strategic partnership” with Iran. This will strengthen the growing ties between Moscow, and Tehran.

After the invasion, Iran sent hundreds of drones to Moscow and assisted in their production. Moscow and Tehran deny that Iran delivered drones to Russia, but they have enabled a continuous barrage of drone attacks at Ukraine’s infrastructure.

Iran wants Russian weapons like fighter jets and long-range air defence systems to deter a possible Israeli attack. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, refused to comment on whether or not the treaty would include mutual military aid.

BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which focuses on security, are two of the international organizations that China uses to promote a world order alternative to one led by the United States.

Willy Lam said that Xi pushed to expand BRICS and that the Kazan Summit will consolidate the economic, technological, and military ties within the expanded bloc. Lam is a senior China Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

Lam stated that Beijing and Moscow are also interested in seeing if an international trading currency can “challenge the so-called dollar’s hegemony”.

The summit is a chance for Xi to show off his close relationship with Putin. The two leaders, who had announced a partnership with “no limits” just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine 2022, have already met twice this year. In May, they were in Beijing, and in July, at a SCO Summit in Kazakhstan.

Experts are looking for signs that Xi is distancing from Putin on the war, even though they will still present a united face.

“While Putin wants the China-Russian relationship to look as good as it ever has, Xi might also want to send a signal to Western countries and others that Beijing is officially ‘neutral,’ in Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, and not a formal ally to Moscow,” said Eva Seiwert. She’s a foreign and security policy expert at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, in Berlin.

This will be critical for conveying China’s image as a legitimate and serious peacemaker in Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Balance acts for India and Turkey

A Modi-Putin expected meeting could result in a rebalancing their relations. India’s western friends want India more involved in convincing Moscow to end the conflict. Modi avoided criticizing Russia, while focusing on a peaceful resolution.

New Delhi sees Moscow as a reliable partner, dating back to the Cold War. They cooperate on matters such as defense, oil and nuclear energy.

The meeting is the second one in a few months. Modi visited Russia and Ukraine in July. In August, he met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And in September, he traveled to the U.S. for a meeting with President Joe Biden.

Raja Mohan is a professor of South Asian Studies at the Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore. He said that India cannot abandon Russia due to its strong defense ties with the country, the regional power balance, and the logic of multiple alignment. “At the time, India also develops and builds its relationships with the U.S.

India and Brazil see BRICS primarily as an economic forum to promote a more equitably distributed power within the international system. “China and Russia, on the other hand, see it more of a geopolitical platform,” said Chietigi Bajipayee who studies South Asia in London at Chatham House.

Theresa Fallon, of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, said that India and Brazil do not want to “be pulled into China’s gravitational sphere”.

Another key participant