Can Crist Avoid Squeeze Play and Will Scott’s Past Come Back to Haunt Him?

August 25, 2010


Despite a convincing win in the Democratic primary against a better-funded opponent, Rep. Kendrick Meek remains an underdog in November’s U.S. Senate race in Florida.

The most recent polling by Quinnipiac University — Aug. 11-16 — showed independent Gov. Charlie Crist leading the three-way race with 39 percent of the vote. Ex-State House Speaker Marco Rubio had 32 percent, and Meek trailed far behind at 16 percent.

Meek’s low-name ID is one reason for his weak showing. But, more problematic is Crist’s taking 45 percent of the Democratic vote and 50 percent of the independent vote.

Since registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state, Meek can’t afford to split his base with Crist.

In 2006, for example, exit polling showed that 39 percent of the electorate was Republican, 36 percent was Democrat and 25 percent was independent. Given the current political climate, it’s easy to assume that the Republican vote could go even higher.

So, can Crist really win this?

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