Three surveys from two organizations have extended the series of polls that found Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Ruben Gallego to be in a substantial lead over his Republican opponent, Kari Lake.

Gallego led by 6 and 5 points in polls conducted for the New York Times, and London’s Telegraph. Gallego led a Times poll among registered voters by 9 percentages points.

Gallego’s lead over Lake has been consistent since Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) announced in March she would not be seeking another six-year-term.

Gallego has led 39 out of 42 head-tohead polls that the non-partisan FiveThirtyEight.com website has tracked since early March.

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Two polls, conducted by Republican clients in July and august, found that the race was tied. A July poll conducted by Lake for her clients showed that she was ahead of the race by one percentage point.

Gallego’s advantage in polls has varied from 2 points for the conservative Club for Growth Action, to 15 points for Fox News.

Real Clear Politics is a website that specializes in politics. It gives Gallego an advantage of 4.6 points on its average polls for the last month.

Early voting begins on October 9, the same day that Lake and Gallego will have their one debate.

What are the political predictions on Lake vs. Gallego?

Gallego is also favored by three nonpartisan organizations that provide political forecasting.

What does the betting market say about Arizona Senate race?

Gallego is also the favorite of the political betting markets.

Polymarket, the largest betting market in the World, has given the Arizona Democrat a 83% chance to win the race.

PredictIt is an online betting market created by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. It shows that the price of wagering on the Democrat for Arizona will be quadruple the Republican.

What else should voters be aware of?

Lake was the only one of the eight Senate races that had been competitive in late August to stand out for the wrong reasons.

Lake had drawn the least Republican-supportive money in future television ad reservations, a key data point widely viewed in political circles as a sign of serious competition.

Arizona Democrats won three consecutive Senate races starting in 2018. This streak ended a 30-year electoral drought, which included nine consecutive Republican victories.

Since Sinema was elected as a Democrat in 2018, the party has been able to win by an average of 2 percentage points.