According to the latest round of polling by the Senate Leadership Fund, some races are close but others are heading in the wrong directions.

According to a POLITICO-obtained internal memo, the top GOP super PAC tasked with flipping Senate found that its candidates were trailing their Democratic counterparts.

According to the latest round of polling conducted by the Senate Leadership Fund, all Republican candidates except one are trailing Donald Trump in battlegrounds states. This pattern could severely limit their ability build a significant majority unless they force a shift in the final weeks before the election.

The Republicans remain the favorites to win control of both chambers, but their data has brought some good news in terms of tight races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Other pickup opportunities are not going well, such as Maryland and Michigan. Sherrod brown, the Democratic senator running in Ohio, a state Trump took in 2020, is looking surprisingly strong.

The map for 2024 is filled with offensive targets for Republicans. These include open seats in Michigan and Arizona. The GOP has a nearly certain pickup in West Virginia, and polls have consistently shown that they are ahead in Montana. It’s not clear how many other seats Republicans will flip. The Republicans have struggled to close a significant fundraising gap among candidates. In some battlegrounds, Democrats are leading in polling.

Two GOP-held states, Texas, and Nebraska, could be developing into late-breaking problems.

Steven Law, the group’s President, wrote that “we still have much work to do in order to maximize our gains during this crucial Senate election.” We need to expand our reach into the last week of all target states and add new media markets. “We also need to protect our flanks.”

Takeaways from the conference:

Recent public polls show that Republicans hold a slight but stable lead in Montana. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester trails Republican Tim Sheehy.

Brown, the Republican candidate in Ohio, has lost 7 points since August, but he still leads Bernie Moreno, the Democrat, by 6 points at mid-October. Moreno, on his part, is 8 points behind Trump.

Sens. In October polls, Bob Casey (D) (Pa.) was only 2 points ahead of Tammy Baldwin (D) (Wis.), and both were just 1 point behind.

Former Maryland Governor, Larry Hogan, is losing ground in Michigan and Maryland open-seat elections. Larry Hogan is down 7 points from the last two polls of this group, and Rep. Elissa slotkin (D-Mich.), who has been leading since September, is gaining ground.

The memo warns about two defensive issues: In Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz only has a 1 point lead in the most recent poll. And Law calls Nebraska “a serious problem-spot”, where they are conducting polls to “assess if intervention is needed” to help GOP Senator Deb Fischer. The incumbent released a survey last week that showed her leading by 6 points.

SLF and its allied groups polled in all the major states. In some cases, they did so twice in September. They are weighing financial investments for the final stretch. In a nine-page memo dated October 8, the group stated that it “will continue to invest in these Senate races based on our most recent polling by early next week.”

Senate polling diverged at various times during this cycle. Some of SLF’s figures do not match private polls conducted in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan by the Senate GOP Campaign arm or others. SLF’s polls also tend to be within the margin of error.

The SLF data will be the primary factor in how the group will spend tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars during the last weeks of the race.

SLF refused to comment on the document, which was sent to POLITICO from someone else.

Mixed results in red states

The memo explains why Montana is the most susceptible state for Democrats. Sheehy was 4 points ahead of Tester in SLF’s October poll, 48 to 44 per cent, a slighter advantage than some recent public surveys. Republicans’ polling shows that Tester’s support has dropped just 2 points in the past two months, but have had him lower than expected for four of the last five polls.

Democrats continue to express public optimism that Tester will win. The memo also notes that because Democrats are still pouring resources into the race it is too early to declare a victory or shift resources. Sheehy, who is 9 points behind Trump in the polls, has not yet been declared the winner.

Ohio, another Senate battleground where Trump is almost guaranteed to win, has a more bleak picture. In a survey conducted in mid-October, Brown had a 45-to-40 point lead over Moreno. Republicans are encouraged by the fact that Moreno’s lead has dropped from 11 points in August. Moreno, however, is still far behind Trump with 47 percent. His favorability also remains below average. Brown’s still has a rightside-up but it is down by 13 net points since August.

The memo states that “Brown’s massive outspending on television has caused serious damage to Moreno’s image, preventing him from closing his ballot gap.” The results of this week may seem a bit pessimistic but Moreno must close the deal.

Bright Spots in the Rustbelt

Republicans are making progress in their efforts to unseat incumbents in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and other states.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick slashed Casey’s lead from 5 points to 2 points between August and October. He is behind Casey by 46 to 48 percent, while Vice President Kamalah Harris leads Trump. SLF reports that GOP advertising helped Casey’s approval rating to drop by 15 net points.

The memo states that “no GOP Senate candidate in this year lives up more to Winston Churchill’s famous injunction, ‘Deserve Victory,’ than Dave McCormick.” McCormick must still close the gap on the ballot with Trump, and Trump must win.

McCormick trails Trump by 2 points in the SLF October survey. If Casey is stealing some Trump votes, it could be difficult for McCormick to unseat the incumbent.

SLF has made Wisconsin “a priority”. Eric Hovde, a Republican, has reduced the lead Baldwin had in mid-September from 5 points to 1 point in October. Baldwin leads by 46 percent to 45 percent according to the latest poll. This is the opposite of the presidential race, where Trump leads Harris by 46 points to 45.

The memo states that “Baldwin’s negatives are greater than Hovde’s, and the ballot is now a statistical tie,”

Two open seats in the Senate are a warning to Republicans

In Michigan, Rep. Elissa slotkin, the Democratic candidate, has increased her lead during September.

In August, she was only 1 point behind Mike Rogers, the former Republican congressman, who had been elected in his place. She used her massive fundraising advantage over the summer, to increase her margin to 8 points (46 percent to 38%) by October. Slotkin’s margin is 9 points higher than Rogers, while Rogers’s has shrunk by 7 points.

The climb