Senate Democrats worry that pollsters have undercounted the Trump vote once again and are concerned about Vice President Harris’s narrow lead in battleground States, particularly Pennsylvania.

After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by former President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another Election Night surprise.

The hope is that Harris will outperform polls by bringing in large numbers of young, Black and Latino voters. However, they acknowledge that it’s not yet known if a pro-Harris majority coalition will emerge.

Since 2016, polling has been severely damaged. “Polling has been seriously damaged since 2016,” says John Fetterman, a Pennsylvania senator.

Democratic lawmakers are worried that their party could be lulled again into a false optimism. Polls show Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – three states that form the so-called “blue wall”.

Sen. Raphael Warnock, who represents Georgia’s swing state, said that it is impossible to tell who’s in the lead at this time because polls have shown Harris and Trump running neck-and-neck, within the margins of error.

We know that this election will be very close. Georgia is one of the battlegrounds, and I am doing all I can to ensure that we include it in our column. “The only poll which matters is the one on Nov. 5, correct?

He said, “We use the term margin of error to describe how much room there is for error.”

One Democratic Senator who asked to remain anonymous acknowledged that Clinton and President Biden did better in polls in 2016 and 2020 against Trump than Harris does right now.

“That’s ominous. It’s true that this is concerning. However, you are working as hard and as long as you can, regardless of the circumstances. “I have the impression that there is not much more you can do,” said the legislator.

The Democratic Senator said that pollsters are having difficulty gauging Trump’s support, because many of the voters who support him don’t want them to interact with or speak openly about their political beliefs.

The senator stated, “The only thing that I can think of is that people feel embarrassed.” Most of what he says, we have told our children not to be like that on the playground. There’s some reluctance in admitting that I will vote for someone whose behavior I have told my children is wrong.

Second Democratic Senator, who asked for anonymity in order to discuss his skepticism regarding Harris’s lead said: “I don’t think that any poll at this time means much.”

“I am surprised that people view the Trump economy as so good delusionally, which is I believe the major factor supporting his approval rating,” said the lawmaker of Trump’s resilience to polls despite many legal setbacks. The Harris campaign also outspent Trump in terms of spending.

If Harris’ performance matches what the polls predict — on average — she will be elected President in November.

Trump’s margin of error is small in most battleground states. He has also outperformed his polling averages in the past, especially in Midwestern states, where his populist message appeals primarily to white blue-collar voters.

During the last two months of the 2020 campaign, Trump consistently trailed Biden in public polls by 5 points on average. He lost the crucial state of Pennsylvania by just 1.2 percentage points – 50 percent to 48.8 %.

In Pennsylvania, Trump was also trailing Clinton in public polls by between 3.5 and 7 points during the last eight weeks of the presidential campaign. Trump won Pennsylvania, despite the fact that he never led Clinton in the average public polls for the Keystone State.

Political handicappers consider Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes as a key state to Harris. If Harris loses in Pennsylvania, she will have to defeat Trump in Georgia or North Carolina – two states where Trump is holding a slim lead – to have any realistic chance of winning over 270 electoral vote.

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College survey of Pennsylvania’s likely voters conducted between Sept. 11-16 revealed that Harris had a 4-point advantage over Trump.

Republicans, however, claim that the poll did not include enough Trump voters. Only 37 percent said that they would vote for Trump during the 2020 presidential elections. Trump won 48.8 % of the vote in this state four years ago.

“I used think it was just incompetence. Now, I see it as part of a strategy. They are trying to reduce enthusiasm. Why would you vote for someone if you believe they will lose? They’re also trying to reduce donations and fundraising,” said a GOP surveyor, who claimed that certain media outlets are biased against Trump.

David Paleologos of Suffolk University Political Research Center said that it is difficult for pollsters predict who will vote in an actual election.

“We might be calling rural Pennsylvania and a Trump supporter could say, “I hate politics.” I’m not voting.’… But this person could become very animated in four weeks if they are contacted by Trump and the NRA. He said that polls were a snapshot of time.

Democratic lawmakers and pollsters admit that the new public polls that show Harris leading Trump by a slim margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or Trump having a slim lead over Harris in Arizona and Georgia, six weeks before Election Day, don’t really mean anything.

What is alarming to Democrats is Trump’s track record in outperforming polls. This is especially true for the Midwestern states Harris hopes to win.

“It’s hard to predict the turnout.” Celinda Lak, a Democratic pollster, said that this cycle could see a surprise Trump and Harris vote.

“I share your concern about some surprises. When you ask people who haven’t voted since ’20, but plan to vote today,” Lake said, “they are disproportionately Trump supporters.”

“If you take a look at the first-time voters that didn’t vote back in ’20 they lean towards Trump. They are very low on information and like his style. They like Elon Musk, and other things. I worry about it. “I think it is definitely a problem, and we need to make sure that there’s enough margin to cover this,” she added.