The Squad could lose a second member. It’s not the warning sign you may think.

Outside groups go after candidates who have baggage but they ignore other races in which their investment might not be as significant.

Pro-Israel groups and centrists dealt a major blow to the left when they defeated Rep. Jamaal bowman in a Democratic Primary. They already have another target in mind. It may be hard for moderate forces to gain a wider momentum against left-wing Democrats this year, as many are heavily armored in preparation for primary challenges.

Bowman’s primary race against the moderate Democrat George Latimer was the most expensive in House history, thanks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Rep. Cori bush (D-Mo) is now in the race. Another member of the progressive Squad could be ousted in a primary on August 6, when Cori Bush faces St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell.

Bowman’s defeat is a warning for the political right, as pro Israel groups mobilize Jewish voters to remove critics of Israel from office and to force the party to the center. Bush and Bowman are both weakened by their serious political flaws, which set them apart and make them more vulnerable to groups such as AIPAC.

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Patrick Dorton, spokesperson of AIPAC super PAC United Democracy Project said in an exclusive interview that both Bowman and Cori are pursuing their personal agendas which have hurt their community. In New York, Bowman’s nationalist agenda turned people off. The same thing is happening now in St. Louis.

AIPAC, along with other pro-Israel groups, has pledged to remove left-leaning Squad members this year by supporting moderate candidates that are more supportive of Israel. AIPAC, as well as Democratic Majority for Israel (a separate pro Israel group), both signaled that Bowman’s defeat was a “major victory for the Democratic mainstream” minutes after the race had been called.

The spending barrage was crucial in Bowman’s ouster, but his position was already weakened before his opponents spent a penny against him. He admitted to a misdemeanor for setting off the fire alarm at a House of Representatives office during a vote on government funding last year. In addition, he suggested that 9/11 was a conspiracies over a decade earlier. Latimer, who is well-known in the local community, can be a formidable opponent for an incumbent accused of being out of touch with local issues.

Bowman defeated 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel, in 2020. The district includes wealthy suburbs along the Long Island Sound as well as urban areas with a majority of Black and Latino residents. Latimer’s allies think that the district’s large Jewish population, coupled with Bowman’s relatively weak connections to community leaders made him vulnerable to a challenge.

Amy Paulin said that the results of Tuesday could be replicated in other parts of the nation. “You need to find the right candidate.”

Bush also has personal issues which make her politically vulnerable. These include a federal probe she is facing over campaign expenditures on private security including payments to her husband.

Outside groups focus on candidates who have baggage but ignore races where they might not be able to make a significant difference. Mark Mellman told POLITICO in March that the pro-Israel group Democratic Majority for Israel PAC is targeting Bowman because of his stance towards Israel. “But they have other problems as well.”

Mellman told an interviewer on Wednesday that “defeating people such as Jamaal Bush and Cori Bowman sends a signal that the Democrats aren’t an extremist party.” “Getting rid these people and stopping them from coming into Congress strengthens the U.S. – Israel relationship.”

AIPAC and DMFI both passed on spending for Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), the first Squad member to face a primary opponent this year. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., crushed her primary rival on Tuesday. Most members of the Squad did not even attract a rival, including Reps. Ayanna pressley (D) and Greg Casar (D-Texas). RashidaTlaib(D-Mich. )– though there was an effort to recruit– and Greg Casar(D-Texas) were among those who did not draw a challenger. Both groups have not indicated they will be running in Rep. Ilhan’s (D. Minn.) primary. She faces Don Samuels, an ex-member of the Minneapolis City Council, who nearly defeated her during the midterms. Pro-Israel groups largely sat out Omar’s 2022 race, which Samuels found offensive. He told Jewish Insider, when he announced his bid to rematch the election last year that he had not spoken with AIPAC.

Bush on Wednesday condemned the high spending in Bowman’s race.

She said in a press release that “these same extremists will be coming to St. Louis.” They are financing a former Republican campaign worker who is posing as a progressive to buy the deep blue Democratic seat. Let me be clear, St. Louis won’t be bought out or silenced.

Bush’s allies tried to link Bell, a progressive prosecutor with Republicans. Anjan Mukherjee, an adviser to his campaign, said that Bush was desperate to discuss anything but how Bell had failed the citizens of Missouri’s first congressional district. Wesley is a progressive with a track record that brings people together to deliver results. That’s how he will be representing this district in Congress.

AIPAC does not usually announce its goals in advance. In April, POLITICO reported that the group was tracking 15 to 20 races, both on the left and right, with UDP spending against Republicans during GOP primaries. Bowman’s and Bush’s cases were very different. AIPAC had backed Latimer, Bell, and Bell in February and January, months before the election.

UDP launched its first offensive against Bowman back in May. It dropped $15 million in just five weeks. This was largely due to the high cost of the New York City media.

The attack on Bush has begun even earlier.

UDP’s first ad for the Missouri primary was released at the end May, several months before the August primaries. According to AdImpact ad tracking service, the group has already spent $2.5 million in ads. This amount is expected to grow. The St. Louis market for media is less expensive than New York City.

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