The Democrats’ advantage in voter registration has decreased in three battleground states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada – raising a flag for Vice President Harris. Experts cite the lack of enthusiasm about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party as a problem.

In Arizona, a key battleground, the Republicans’ voter registration edge has increased substantially. This could make it harder for Harris to win a state President Biden won by merely 1% in 2020.

Other presidential battlegrounds, such as Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, don’t register voters according to party.

It may be that the Harris campaign is focusing on the middle when it comes to issues like fracking or tax policy, due to the shift in voter registration from Democrats towards Republicans in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

In Nevada, Democrats’ advantage in voter registration has dropped, but Harris maintains an edge over the former president Trump, unlike other states.

“If you compare the results from 2020 to 2024 then Republicans have gained about 70,000 voters, while Democrats have lost about 300,000. “Nonaffiliated, independent voters have increased by about 83,000 to 85,000,” Berwood Yost said, Director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, Pennsylvania.

He said that the decline in Democratic voter registrations in certain parts of Pennsylvania was due to “disappointment with Washington’s party.”

He added, “People have a negative opinion of the Biden presidency.” “Yeah. It’s a big red flag and they are trying to fix it.

Yost warned Harris that the declining Democratic voter register is a problem in counties such as Erie and Bucks. She also said it was a problem in rural counties like Fayette, where she wanted to limit Trump’s victory margin.

It’s a warning, but we knew it was going to be close. “This is an example of that,” said he.

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, a recent Pennsylvania poll shows that Harris is leading Trump by one point but both candidates are equally likely to win the Keystone State.

David Paleologos is the director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center in Boston. He said that Democrats in Pennsylvania had a voter registration advantage of about 666,000 people in 2020. This advantage has since shrunk down to 354,000 in 2024.

He said that the Democrats’ advantage in North Carolina in terms of voter registration has decreased from +393,000 voters to plus-130,000 in 2024.

Paleologos, a Democrat registered for the past four years, told The Hill that “the general shift” has been to register as a Republican.

He explained that the increase in Republican registrations was more due to a decline of Democrats than an increase of Republicans.

“I don’t think many people have really grasped the fact that, when Trump won North Carolina, in 2020, he won despite the fact there were 390,000 additional Democrats registered. Today, the Democrats’ advantage over Republicans is just about 130,000. He said that the advantage has been reduced by two-thirds.

Paleologos noted that despite any gains Harris might have made, or microtargetings she may have performed… Trump appears to be in a position to possibly widen what certain polls show for North Carolina.

Lara Putnam is a historian who studies election statistics at the University of Pittsburgh. She said that older Democrats in Pennsylvania are disappearing, and other voters, who were classified as Reagan Democrats, are now changing their party affiliation.

She said, “The net effect is that more people are switching from Democratic to Republican registration.”

She explained that the majority of those people were what you could call Reagan Democrats. They are people who had been registered as Democrats in their communities, but have been slowly shifting to identify more with Republicans.

She added, “These are people in the Rust belt communities.” The decline in union strength, and the growth of other economic areas has broken the link between Democratic voters and industrial areas.

Democratic strategists in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and elsewhere acknowledge that the advantage of their party in voter registration has decreased in these two states since Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2020 and his narrow loss in North Carolina.

The shifting registration numbers have caught up with voting behavior. Registered Democrats who voted Trump or for other Republicans only recently changed their party registration.

They argue that many of the new voters who register as independents or non-affiliated to any party will likely support Harris rather than Trump.

“Some registered Democrats are changing their parties in order to reflect the way they have voted for years.” “A 2020 Trump voter changing his registration to Republican in the year 2024 does not indicate how voting will change in Pennsylvania in 2024,” J.J. Balaban said, a Democratic Strategist based in Pennsylvania.

Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist in North Carolina said that younger voters likely to vote Harris are registering more and more as unaffiliated. He said that one of the main reasons is because both parties are viewed as bad.

“Yes, Democrats have registered less and Republicans more, but in reality, people are registering as non-affiliated.” Jackson told The Hill that the unaffiliated now constitutes the largest group of voters. “I think that’s because the national party brands have been a disaster with voters,” Jackson told The Hill.

“Especially many new and first-time voters. They don’t really have a party allegiance. What I can tell you is that the majority of unaffiliated voters are not unaffiliated. “Most of them are aligned with either one or the other party,” he said. “There is a small group of people who are swing voters.

The Hill/Decision Desk gives Trump a 64-percent chance of winning North Carolina. He also finds that he has a 1-point lead over Harris on the polling averages in North Carolina.

Paleologos of Suffolk University says that the margins in voter registration between the two parties have changed in Arizona and Nevada, both battlegrounds for the presidential election and the U.S. Senate.

Constantin Querard is a Republican strategist based in Arizona. He said that Republican officials and activists are making a concerted effort to increase Republican Party memberships in the state.

He said that the Republican Party was credited for doing the necessary work on the ground.

He claimed that Republican voter registration has increased nationwide.