McCarthy’s math problem

Kevin McCarthy, the House Minority Leader (Republican from California), met with key members of his conference on Tuesday to discuss how he can get the votes needed to be elected speaker.

Why it is important: McCarthy faces a humiliating defeat that could end his career with only five weeks to go until Jan. 3, speaker election. Many members of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus have publicly vowed to deny McCarthy crucial votes.

Driving the news: Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., told Axios Tuesday that he is a firm “no” on McCarthy after previously allowing for some wiggle room. “I will vote for an alternative candidate.” I won’t vote for Kevin McCarthy.”

Good stated in a follow up interview that he would vote for Rep. Andy Biggs, (R-Ariz.), which Good told Politico that he was voting for himself.

State of play: McCarthy needs a majority vote to be elected speaker. He will be unable to afford any defections with a House Republican majority that is just five to six seats.

Good, Biggs and Reps. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and Ralph Norman, R-N.C., have all said that they are hard “no”s. Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont. He also expressed firm opposition.

This may not be McCarthy’s problem. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R.Ga.), one his key allies, said privately that there could be “as many as 10” no-votes. Good stated that 20 was “in the ballpark.”

Good said, “My hope that those members will start to increasingly come out public to build that momentum.”

McCarthy, on Tuesday, told reporters that he will not quit if he fails to get the first vote. He also promised a floor fight, even if multiple ballots are required.

Behind the scenes: Tuesday’s meeting featured GOP leaders and caucus chairmen representing a broad cross-section House Republican population, as well as at least half a dozen Freedom Caucus members (a mix of McCarthy supporters, opponents, and undecideds).

The GOP conference rules were the topic of discussion. They will be up for vote on Wednesday. Freedom Caucus members demand changes to give rank-and file members more influence.

They are saying that it was a productive discussion. Norman stated that he was open to negotiations and said so at the end of the meeting. “We have five weeks to reach an agreement.”

Norman stated that McCarthy was trying to whip his vote during the rules discussions, but he is sticking to his vow to challenge the GOP leader: “I’m where I’m.”

Scott Perry, Freedom Caucus chair (Republican from Pennsylvania), called it a “cordial discussion” and indicated that the rules changes would be pivotal. “Washington, D.C. is completely broken.”

Greene, who was whipping votes for McCarthy said that the meeting made progress towards winning over no-votes. She said that “a few” of them had been in talks with McCarthy and that “I believe they’re going around.”

What we are watching: Republicans tend to be focused on McCarthy’s No. 2, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, (R-La. He would likely face many of the same issues as McCarthy, but he could still win.