According to a recent poll, Rep. Ruben Galego (D-Ariz.), leads Sen. Kyrsten Sinesma (I-Ariz. )and a number of other Republicans for the Arizona Senate race in 2024.

Gallego was leading eight hypothetical matches, including four against Sinema who ran independently and four where Gallego faced a Republican running in a race head-to-head.

Former Gov. Doug Ducey was included in the poll along with former gubernatorial candidates Karrin Taylor-Robson, Kari Lake, and Blake Masters.

Gallego can lead a three-person event by as few as 5 points if he is racing with Ducey, and up to 9 points if he is racing with Masters. He is ahead by 7 points with Taylor Robson, and 8 points with Lake in a race.

The margins vary significantly depending on the Republican candidate. He is ahead by four points against Ducey, Taylor Robson and Masters. However, he’s in the lead by 10 and 11 points respectively against Lake and Lake.

More than 20% of respondents were undecided about all matches.

Gallego announced last month that he was running for the Senate to replace Sinema. He argued that Sinema had prioritized wealthy individuals over Arizonan families. In recent months, he has repeatedly attacked Sinema on the left.

Sinema was elected as a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 2018. In December, she announced that she would be leaving the Democratic Party. She will now register as an Independent Senator. She stated at the time, “being true to myself and my way of operating” was the reason for her decision. It also gave people in Arizona and all over the country a sense that they belonged.

Sinema is yet to officially announce if she plans to run for reelection. However, her switch in party could lead to a three-way contest.

Mike Noble, chief research officer at the polling company, stated in a press release that “what I take from this data is the two key variables in this Senate race are the’style,’ of the Republican nominee to run, and whether Sinema will also be on the ballot.” There’s still a lot of time before election day. This means that anything can happen to change the dynamics of the race.

Gallego is the only candidate who received more favorable responses than negative ones. Taylor Robson’s and Sinema’s numbers were barely below average, while Lake and Masters’ numbers are significantly less favorable than favorable.

The survey was part of a 1,000-person online opt-in poll. The margin of error is 3.1 points.