Arizona Senate race creates political headache for Democrats

Senate Democratic leaders are facing a difficult path in Arizona’s Senate Race, where Democrat Ruben Galego could face off not only against a Republican but also with Sen. Kyrsten Sienema (I), a Democrat who was formerly a member.

Some Arizona Democrats believe that Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer (D.Y.), who is a Democrat, will support Gallego even if it’s behind the scenes. They cite the animosity felt by many Democrats toward Sinema after she became an independent last summer and her electoral prospects.

Other members of the party, however, do not believe this calculus to be as straightforward and think that Senate Democrats need to proceed with caution, since she is still a member of the party’s upper chamber caucus, where Democrats hold a slim majority.

One senior Democratic strategist said, “I’m 100 percent sure that it’s not obvious because she’s incumbent.” “She caucuses together with the Democrats. She may not be a Democrat any more, but she caucuses with us. In that sense, I suppose, it’s an incumbent. “I think that we are in a difficult situation because she has not indicated that she will stop consulting with us.”

The strategist referred to the 2006 Connecticut Senate Democratic Primary, in which Sen. Joe Lieberman lost to Ned Lamont, a fellow Democrat. After Lamont’s win, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee expressed its support for Lamont. Lieberman chose to run as an Independent. Liberman won the general election against Lamont.

The strategist stated that “he came back as an Independent still caucusing Democrats, but in a totally different way, and in my opinion, in spiteful and vindictive manner.”

Sinema is mum on whether she intends to run for re-election in the next election. NBC News reported last month that Sinema’s political team shared a prospectus outlining the possible shares of Republicans and Democrats to form a coalition.

According to a Federal Election Commission filing, the incumbent senator’s campaign stated that she raised approximately $826,000 during the third quarter. Close to half of this amount included transfers. Sinema had about $10.8 million in cash at the end of the third quarter, which is essentially the amount she had raised by the second quarter.

Gallego’s Campaign said earlier this year that he raised more than $3 million during the third quarter, and had over $5 million at the end of the quarter.

Polling also shows that Sinema is in danger. Gallego was ranked first in a survey by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling commissioned by the Gallego Campaign.

A survey by the Republican firm National Research Inc. found that Lake was ranked first with 37 percent of support, followed by Gallego on 33 percent, and Sinema on 19 percent.

Democrats note that she will also have to meet a threshold of signatures to be eligible to vote.

Matt Grodsky is a former vice president of Matters of State Strategies and former communications director of the Arizona Democratic Party.

He said that if she wins, the politicians will have to take calculated decisions about how this will impact any legislation they negotiate. “But, I’m sure that, even if they don’t do it publicly, they will privately support Ruben Gallego, as I’m not confident that their constituents would be happy to see them take any other action.”

Dawn Penich Thacker, a Democratic consultant in Arizona, said Arizona Democrats should expect Senate leadership to rally behind Gallego when Sinema makes an announcement.

There’s a real understanding that, you know, we don’t know if it’s her in the race. So, it’s okay. Penich-Thacker stated that they need to concentrate and do their work. If that changes, if she jumps into the race, then there is an expectation from the bottom to the top of the Democratic Party to support the Democrat.

Sinema’s Campaign did not respond when asked for comment.

John LaBombard is a former aide of Sinema. He said that there may be pressure on some members and groups in the Democratic Party to support Gallego. However, he noted that the DSCC was an organization protecting incumbents.

LaBombard stated that “the dynamics are such that everyone could benefit from keeping an arm’s distance from each other — we just mean the Democrats — by everybody staying at a safe distance from one another.”

Democrats are waiting for Sinema to make an announcement.

In a recent statement, a Democratic national aide who works on Senate campaigns stated that the party was waiting for Sinema to decide whether or not she would run. They were also working hard to hold Kari Lak accountable.

Lake is facing off against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb in the GOP primaries, but is considered a heavy favorite. The Senate GOP’s campaign arm is not yet clear what role it will play in Lake’s race. However, a source who knows the Republican groups’ strategies confirmed to The Hill that they had not ruled out supporting the former GOP governor, as Politico reported.

In her speech at the campaign launch in Scottsdale, Ariz. she tried to appeal to swing voters, who were the ones that she lost in the last election cycle. She argued “honest elections’ are not a partisan matter, but also criticized the media for “the disaster” of Election Day in Arizona.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont. Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Steve Daines (R-Mont. ), called Lake a “talented candidate with an impressive ability” to ignite the grassroots and stated that they had “productive discussions with Kari Lake’s team.”

“Arizona, you know, when you look at it closely, I believe it’s better than Pennsylvania for example.” “I think this is an area where Senate Republicans will want to invest their resources,” said one Republican strategist who spoke candidly and requested anonymity.

She said she met with the Senate Republican leadership, as well as members of the conference including Senators. John Barrasso (R-Wyo. John Cornyn, Tom Cotton and John Barrasso (R-Wyo). The strategist also noted that she met with top McConnell advisers, Senate Leadership Fund and the super PAC affiliated with Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell.

“I think Lake’s shown… that she is willing to work with Senate Republicans. She’s willing