Last time Nebraskans elected a senator who was not a Republican it was George W. Bush, a President with a deeply divided GOP. It’s therefore strange that Republicans rush to ensure that Republican Senator Deb Fischer retains the seat for a second term, while Democrats hold a tepid hope that the deeply red state will at least be open to supporting a union leader who is running independently.

National Republicans have spent about a half million dollars on advertising in the last month of their campaign. A group that has ties to the richest family in the state is contributing another $2 million for Fischer’s late-emerging race against Dan Osborn. While national Democrats publicly deny any involvement, they privately point out polls – albeit limited – that suggest Nebraska could be closer than it should be for a state with a 2-to-1 Republican advantage in voter registration. The most respected political handicapper changed its rating of the race late last month from a GOP win to one that was a little closer to the center. A New York Times/Siena College survey of three other Senate elections that attracted the attention of Democrats, released on Thursday, suggests Nebraska could be the last hope for Democrats to have any influence over the Senate.

Nebraska’s Senate Race is the most unexpected race of this cycle.

One Democratic strategist who worked on other Senate campaigns said, “This wasn’t on my BINGO cards.”

One Republican strategist, who has played the Senate game for many years, adds: “If Deb Fisher is in trouble then [Senators] Sherrod, Brown, Tester and Bob Casey will be toast in a year that is anti-incumbent.”

Nebraska is no stranger to Democrats who are facing a very difficult Senate map this year. Ben Nelson, the last Democrat to win a Senate election in Nebraska was in 2006. Nebraskans have sent Democrats such as Bob Kerrey and Jim Exon to the Senate in previous years, but they are from a completely different time. Democrats didn’t bother to nominate anyone this year, instead assuming that their efforts would be better spent protecting incumbents in Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania.

Nebraska was, for a good reason, not the top place where both party strategists spent much time. Democrats thought Fischer would win the race by 19 points, as she did in 2018. Two years later, President Donald Trump won the state with the same margin. This was a poor investment on the part of Democrats. It seemed more important to unseat incumbent Republicans in GOP friendly Florida and Texas than the large number of Republican voters in the middle of the country.

The GOP cavalry, less than one month before Election Day is rushing to Omaha to defend Fischer, an unassuming lawmaker who has coveted assignments on the Armed Services Committee and Appropriations Committee. Fischer, a cattle rancher before she entered politics, often avoids the spotlight in order to focus on issues that are important to her constituents such as agriculture subsidies and rural Internet. No Republican could credibly bring her race into doubt. It is because of this that panic has crept into the GOP’s bloodstream, now that the Upper Chamber is in danger. Six months ago, a competitive race in Nebraska wasn’t even a possibility.

Osborn, for his part has tried to keep the national Democrats at a distance. He has said he will not join either party’s caucus, breaking away from the independent members of the chamber. Instead he plans to join the Senate Democrats as a way to organize. Osborn led a strike against Kellogg at Omaha in 2021. He has denied any links with national liberal figures such as Chuck Schumer or Bernie Sanders.

Osborn said to The Washington Post that “people are just thirsty” for change. Fischer has labelled her independent opponent as a “Trojan Horse” for Democrats.

A confluence events and over $4 million in dark-money liberal ads are responsible for the race’s surprising competitiveness. Nebraska is only one of two states in which the statewide presidential winner does not automatically win all the Electoral College vote for the state. Nebraska and Maine have the only states that allocate some electoral votes based on congressional districts. This has made Nebraska’s second district an attractive target for national Democrats. There’s also been a surge in activity on the Omaha-area border of Nebraska. A Midwest printing shop has even sold shirts promoting Omaha as the “Blue Dot” of the region. (Both Joe Biden, and Barack Obama won that district.

As this campaign enters a final sprint, both sides are worried about an unexpected race in a Plains State. Many other campaigns are also watching the situation with trepidation. If a latent anti incumbent seed is blossoming so late in Nebraska where else could shockingly close contests arise?