Republican Tim Sheehy is up against Jon Tester, in a race centered on “Montana Values.”

Wylie Gustafson, a third generation Montana farmer, has been voting for Senator Jon Tester for years. She stuck with the Democrat, even when Montana became more red.

Gustafson is a rancher and musician who has been living in Montana for 63 years. He will vote this year for Tim Sheehy’s Republican opponent, an out-of-state businessman.

He said, “Maybe there is a small amount of guilt in not going to Jon this time.” “Because Jon is a nice guy,” he said.

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Tester’s fate will be determined by whether other Montanans share his views. It could also determine which party controls U.S. Senate in the coming year. This would have profound implications on federal tax policy and judicial nominations.

West Virginia’s Senate seat will almost certainly flip when Sen. Joe Manchin III retires. Tester is the top Republican candidate. The Republicans’ No. 1 target for next month is Tester.

There was a period when there were many senators like Tester — Democrats who won over voters who voted for Republicans or vice versa. In recent years, however, split-ticket voting has become less common. Instead, people tend to line up along their own partisan lines, and vote straight red or green up and down the list.

Voters in Montana are weighing the benefits of having Tester as a local icon with a flattop hairstyle and three fingers missing from a meat-grinding incident against their displeasure with the Democrat votes that convicted Donald Trump in two impeachment cases. The election will show if the state, which was once purple, has become even more red since Tester’s last win by 3.5 percent in 2018.

The latest polls suggest Sheehy, 38, a former Navy SEAL who moved to Montana 10 years ago and became a millionaire founding an aerial firefighting company, has a seven-percentage-point edge. National Democrats are investing millions in long-shot efforts to unseat GOP Senators in Texas and Florida.

In interviews with The Washington Post, voters, who often refer to Tester as his first name in their conversations, have rarely raised these national issues. Instead, they’ve been grappling with local and personal concerns over Montana’s rapidly evolving identity in the wake of an influx in newcomers.

Gustafson said that his admiration for Tester as a native Montanan did not outweigh the desire to have a representative more in line with the politics of his state. He turned away from Tester when he voted against a bipartisan infrastructure bill worth $1 trillion and Democratic climate legislation.

He will vote for Sheehy despite “reservations”, that the veteran is not a native Montanan. Gustafson is a relative of the state’s Lieutenant Governor. “But I’ll give them the benefit-of-the doubt that they came to Montana and understand why Montana is what is is,” said Gustafson, who is related to the state’s lieutenant governor.

The question of what makes Montana Montana has been a looming issue in the Senate race. Tester has repeatedly claimed that Sheehy is an outsider wealthy who wants to change Montana, while Sheehy has said that Tester is not welcome here because his liberal votes.

Tester’s political future is at stake in a state which backed Donald Trump in 2020 by 16 percentage points. He plays on the fears of Montanans about wealthy outsiders moving here and driving up property prices. He blanketed the radio with grainy pictures of his ancestors homesteading their land in Montana centuries ago, and painted his opponent as an opulent carpetbagger.

Republicans in California believe that many of the transplants, who number in the tens and thousands since 2020, are conservatives fleeing the covid-19 restrictions of blue states like California and Colorado. The state doesn’t register voters by political party, so it is difficult to assess newcomers.

According to U.S. Census Bureau statistics, almost half of the population in Montana is not native. This includes Sen. Steve Daines and Gov. Greg Gianforte.

Matt McKenna is a Montana Democratic Strategist who worked on previous Tester campaigns. “Be very skeptical about anyone who claims to know who the new people in Montana are.”

Many voters who have recently moved into the state, and plan to vote for Tester, said that they see Montana as a “red-hot” place.

Rhonda Brennecke said, “We moved from California to Montana to get away with the politics,” who had moved there 5 1/2 years earlier. She stopped to give a short interview as she was heading to a GOP fundraising event for Sheehy, and others, in Gallatin County. “So happy to have arrived here. “We’re really happy for Sheehy, [GOP Rep. Ryan] Zinke and other people.”

Tester has portrayed many of these newcomers including Sheehy as lacking in “Montana Values” of fairness, trustworthiness and honesty.

Tester said to a group of about a dozen voters in Butte, Montana, this month, “There are a lot people who move here with hundreds of millions of dollar and want to buy friends, buy houses, and buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy” But the truth is that this state has always been about working men. It will always be about working men.

Sheehy has shunned most of the media and has said that he didn’t know where he was in his mother’s womb when he crawled out. He also claimed to have moved as soon as possible.

Katie Martin, Sheehy spokeswoman said that Jon Tester was saying that unless someone is born in the United States, they don’t have any value to him. Their voice should not be heard. It doesn’t really matter whether you moved 10 years, 30 years or 40 years ago. Tim and his spouse did the same thing after their military service. Jon Tester believes that you are not important, that your vote should not count, and that he does represent you in Washington.

In a short interview, Tester stated that his message about Sheehy was not directed at all newcomers. He said that “a lot of people who are working have moved here.” “A few people are trying buy the state to turn it into their personal playground.”

Tester’s argument resonated with some voters. Some blamed newcomers for Montana’s housing crisis, which had recently been ranked as the least affordable by a national Realtors association.

“The fact Tester has homesteaded his family’s land for so many years and [is] a] testament to the ability of Tester as a farmer.