Harry Enten, CNN’s senior data reporter, was amazed by the small lead that former President Trump currently has with independent voters in key swing states. He suggested that this is evidence that Trump could win in November.

Enten broke down independent voter polling on “CNN News Central”, showing network anchor John Berman how Trump was able to gain an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in key swing state demographics. Enten pointed out that the Democratic Party had won these voters by +5 points in 2020. This showed significant momentum for Trump.

Enten said, “That is the kind of movement Donald Trump likes to see. It’s also a movement that causes Democrats some agita.”

The data reporter started by noting that Trump has been chipping at the Democratic Party’s lead among independents since November 2020. Biden’s (+11) points when he won the 2020 election had been halved in September 2024. Harris, on the other hand, only had +5 among independents nationwide. Harris’ lead had been halved to +2 by the end of September 2024.

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He said: “Look at it now, she is only ahead by two points in a key center block of the electorate. We are down nine points from where Biden stood at the end 2020 campaign.”

He then looked at the independent voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Trump had a +1 advantage over Harris. This is a flip from 2020, when Biden gained these voters by +5.

Enten said, “Look where we are now.” Enten said, “This is exactly the kind of movement Donald Trump wants to see at the middle of the electorate — up by one point.”

Enten said that this race is still in a toss up, as Trump’s advantage is within error margin. However, he clarified that it is the “trends”, which are interesting.

“Well, I’m sure that is well within any margin for error. Right? It’s still the movement. “We’re looking for trends, Mr. Berman.”

Enten went on to describe how important the independent vote was for candidates who wanted to win the White House. The reporter explained that “usually the way independents vote, the nation goes,” as he looked at a graph showing how many presidential election were won by candidates who won the independent vote.

In 18 of the elections that have taken place since 1952, the candidate with the most independent votes won 15 times. Only three times since 1952 has a candidate who loses the independent vote won the presidential race.

“It is possible to win an election and lose independents, but it’s only happened 3 times.” Nixon won in 1968. Ford in ’76, and Kerry in 2004,” he added. “Usually, when you win Independents, John it’s good for your chances of winning the election.”