In a vote on Wednesday, the French government was overthrown in a vote against confidence. This plunged the second largest economy of euro zone into a period political uncertainty.

The motion was passed by 331 votes, which is far more than the 288 needed.

Both the left and right wing parties had tabled motions Monday, after Prime Minister Michel Barnier abused his constitutional powers to force through a budget for social security without a vote.

National Rally said that it would support both the NFP motion and its own “motion of censure” directed against the government.

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To pass the vote of no confidence, either motion would need to be supported by at least 288 of the 574 members of the National Assembly. The far-right alliance and the leftwing bloc have 333 members in the Parliament combined, but some were expected to abstain.

Barnier said he “was not afraid” of losing the vote but urged the parties to come together to resolve the divisions. Barnier said that it was “an honor” for him to be the prime minister before receiving standing ovations from French politicians.

Barnier, who was appointed premier of France on September 5, will have to resign three months later. His administration will also be the shortest in the history of France’s Fifth Republic.

After several weeks of negotiation with the opposition, the prime minister was forced to step down. The negotiations were to reach an agreement on a part of a larger budget for 2025 that included tax increases and spending cuts worth 60 billion euros. These measures are seen as essential to reduce France’s projected 6.1% budget deficit in 2024.

Barnier’s minor government, however, failed to win supporters on either side. The government faced more haggling on the budget, which was due to be approved by Dec. 21. It also had to deal with the National Rally’s whims.

Barnier, a conservative of right-wing leaning with Les Republicains Party, was appointed in September and it caused controversy from the start. This came after the RN won the respective rounds of a parliamentary elections held in June and in July.

On Wednesday, the ideologically-distant blocs’ shared antipathy toward Barnier, the government and its budget plans brought them together, in what some analysts described as an “unholy alliance” of political foes.

What comes next?

Barnier will resign as soon as possible, although Macron may ask him to remain in the role of caretaker premier while he searches to replace him. The next parliamentary election cannot be held until June/July of the following year, 12 months after the last vote.

Mujtaba Raham, Eurasia Group’s managing director for Europe, said that the fall of Barnier, and his government, means “all of their unfinished legislative work falls with them” in terms of the budget.

Rahman stated in an email Monday that a budget emergency is likely to be passed this month. This will effectively roll over the 2024 tax laws until a budget for 2025 is decided. A new PM must be appointed quickly, because a caretaker administration cannot pass a budget for 2025. This puts pressure on Macron, who must select a prime minister as soon as possible.

Carsten Nickel is the deputy director of risk consultancy Teneo. He said that the formation of the government will be closely watched, including the level of Macron’s involvement. Nickel also warned that Barnier could continue to serve as caretaker, since new elections cannot take place before summer.

Barnier’s fate is a warning to Macron, or whoever he chooses to be his next Prime Minister, about the dangers and tripwires they will face in trying to reach consensus on the budget and other major policies, especially given the deep divisions that have been exposed since Macron’s poor decision to call for snap elections this year.

Macron returned to France from Saudi Arabia on Wednesday night after a three-day visit. He had kept a low-profile in recent weeks, despite the political turmoil that has engulfed the government – turmoil which was ultimately the result of his own decisions. Macron is now under pressure for his decision to appoint a new premier and his own position.

Rahman stated that Macron can choose any prime minister he wants to replace Barnier, including Barnier. However, the French Parliament can “censure” his new choice at any time.

Rahman added: “Both Macron and the divided parliamentary majority that opposes him must carefully calculate their strategies.”

“The far left and the left must… be careful. The new PM will not be able to present a stopgap, rolled-over budget if they censure him. The government could theoretically close down on 1 January, if it had no legal basis for raising taxes to pay pensions, police, health care, defence, or deputies salaries in the [National] Assembly.

The president will likely face pressure from both the left and the right to resign so that a new election can be held much earlier than 2027.

Analyst Carsten Nickel said that a resignation by Macron would trigger presidential election within 35 days. “While this may seem unlikely, the recent snap polls should serve at least as a reminder about Macron’s penchant to make unilateral decisions,” he added.

Mujtaba Raham, of Eurasia Group, believes that Macron will ignore any pressure to resign. However, “the new crisis places him back at the center of the political game.”