Iran believes Israel will reduce the intensity of its campaign, as it did with Gaza.

Hezbollah announced the appointment of a new leader. Naim Qassem was appointed as the new leader of Hezbollah after Israel removed Hassan Nasrallah, and his successor Hashem Safieddine. Qassem has a good reputation within Hezbollah. He has spoken out about Israel’s attacks in the past.

He told NBC News in November 2023 that “Hezbollah is participating to lower the pressure on Gaza.”

In a published statement on October 29, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed his congratulations to Qassem.

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In this delicate historical moment, it is clear that the defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial unity, as well the lofty ideals and oppressed Palestinian people, are historical. “I am confident that your excellency’s presence at the top of Hezbollah will strengthen the resistance in this field and the path of the martyrs who have risen to high positions on this front,” Pezeshkian said.

This statement indicates that Iran believes Qassem is likely to survive for more than just a few days. Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, also sent a letter to Qassem.

Qalibaf visited Lebanon recently, flying the plane himself. Your Excellency, I thank God for your smart decision. You have the face of someone who is committed to the Lebanese Resistance Front, Hezbollah, and has the experience of a fighter. Qalibaf wrote: “I congratulate this militant and revolutionary group.”

The Hezbollah Shura Council announced Tuesday that Naim Qassem had been elected. Many other congratulatory messages have been received.

Hossein Salaami, the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, said: “This blessed election ensures the unstoppable path and glory of Islamic resistance in Lebanon as well as the fierce determination of Hezbollah fighters to free the oppressed Palestinians from the yoke imposed by the Zionist invasion and their criminal supporters.”

He expressed his hope for Qassem’s long life, but noted that he had walked a “martyr’s” path. This would suggest that Iran is aware of his numbered days. Israel’s defense minister Yoav Galant posted a message on social media threatening the Hezbollah new leader on October 29, 2015.

The Iran-Lebanon Parliamentary Friendship Group also congratulated the new Hezbollah Leader. The group praised Hezbollah for its war against Israel. Iran’s IRNA reported that the group expressed its hope that Hezbollah would continue to fight against Israel and resist it stronger than ever before.

Alma Research and Education Center has published an article on Qassem’s background. The article states that Qassem was born in the year 1953. His family is from Kafr fila, in the Tufah District of southern Lebanon. He is married with six children. He holds a degree from the Lebanese Shi’ite Amal Movement and taught before joining Hezbollah.

Qassem was three times elected to Hezbollah’s Shura Council. In the 1980s, he was in charge of Hezbollah’s educational activities and scouts at Beirut. He also served as the deputy and then the head of Hezbollah’s executive council.

Qassem remained in the same position as Nasrallah’s deputy until he was elected as Hezbollah’s current secretary general after Nasrallah’s death. The Alma report concluded, “we estimate that in light of circumstances and results of war and the character of Naim Kazem, the Iranians will have a much greater involvement in all spheres of what is happening in Hezbollah during Nasrallah’s lifetime.”

Iran invests in Qassem, the future of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has suffered blows since Israel’s increased operations in Lebanon began in September and in October. Iran believes that Israel’s campaign in Lebanon will be less intense than it was in Gaza. Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, for example, have decreased in recent weeks. Israel did not follow up on its attacks against the Hezbollah’s financial institutions in Qard al-Hasan. Hezbollah is aware that Israel can plan complex precision attacks.

Iran’s concerns

Israel also knows that it is not very good at long-term strategic conflicts. Israel excels at small-scale tactical operations. Israel struggles to achieve its goals in a war fought on attrition. Iran may also believe that Israel does not want to reach the Litani River, and will settle for clearing villages close to the border.

Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a number of attacks that occurred on October 29th and 30th, after Qassem’s appointment. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a rocket attack and border attacks on Israeli “bases” and also a civilian killed in Tarshiha. Iran’s official media reported that “the Islamic resistance of Lebanon” also fired an impressive number of drones and missiles against the positions of the occupying force in the towns Kafr-Giladi and Dalton as well as Al-Manara and Zarei. The group also attacked the Naqoura area, where they actually hit a UNIFIL facility. Hezbollah said it was targeting an Israeli “naval bases.”