According to a new assessment, Russia is using nuclear threats to dissuade Kyiv’s Western supporters from providing military assistance ahead of an anticipated counter-offensive.

According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, spoke on Tuesday.

Shoigu supported Russia’s decision not to transfer nuclear weapons from Belarus and said NATO had increased combat training at Russia’s borders. According to a Kremlin report, he said that Western aid to Ukraine “risks an important expansion of the conflict.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would place nuclear weapons in Belarus, a country considered one of Moscow’s most loyal allies, on March 25. This was the first time that the Kremlin has placed Russian nuclear weapons in a country other than Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Boris Gryzlov (Russian ambassador to Belarus) later stated that the weapons would be “moved close to the Western frontier” of Belarus and in closer proximity with many NATO countries.

Since the beginning of hostilities in February 2022, Russia has increased its nuclear threats to Western countries that support the Kyiv government. Russian forces used Belarus to launch their invasion of Ukraine, and Minsk publicly supported the war.

According to the ISW, Shoigu “reinforced Russian nuclear threats” Tuesday. He told Russian military commanders that Belarus has nuclear-capable attack aircraft as well as the Iskander M missile system that is capable of carrying out nuclear strikes. The ISW said that Shoigu’s information wasn’t new and was likely part of an intelligence operation.

The Kremlin confirmed that Putin will meet with Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus’ leader) on Wednesday and Thursday.

Putin stated late last month that the transfer of nuclear arms would not violate the non-proliferation agreement, and said there was “nothing abnormal” about the decision. The U.S. stated that it had “no reason to alter our strategic nuclear position nor have any indications that Russia is preparing for use of a nuclear weapon” in the wake of the announcement.

These statements by Shoigu come before Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring offensive. According to the ISW, Russian forces continue to prepare for a “rumored imminent” Ukrainian push in south Ukraine.

Russian media was informed by Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian President, that Moscow’s military commanders had “calculated” for Kyiv’s move and that the Kremlin general staff was “preparing its own solutions.”

Officials from Ukraine had stressed the need for weapons supplies from the West in order to conduct such a counter-offensive. The ISW wrote that the arrival of equipment in Ukraine “likely sets conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive” in March.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Defense released a $2.6 billion new security aid package to Ukraine. It included additional ammunition for Kyiv’s High Mobility Artiller Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Meanwhile, Finland officially joined NATO. This was in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, a senior U.S. defense official stated that the new round of aid was aimed at “supporting Ukraine to change the dynamics on the ground.”

In a Pentagon briefing, the official stated that Ukraine wants to assist it in its advancement and maintain its positions in what he expects will be a counteroffensive.