Hogan’s popularity is a direct contrast to the voters’ preference for Democrats in control of the Senate.

According to a Washington Post/University of Maryland survey, Democrat Angela D. Alsobrooks is in a strong lead over Republican Larry Hogan, thanks to the overwhelming preference of voters for Democrats to take control of the Senate and their doubts about whether Larry Hogan will defy the party leaders.

Post-UMD’s poll shows that 52 percent of voters likely to vote support Alsobrooks as the Prince George’s County Executive, while 40 percent back former Governor Hogan, and 4 percent are Libertarian Mike Scott. Alsobrooks’s 12-point lead is the same as her 11-point lead in a Post-UMD survey conducted in September.

Hogan, despite being behind in the polls, is still outperforming his party’s top ticket in this heavily Democratic state. In the 2020 presidential race, vice president Kamala Harris leads former president Donald Trump by 61 percent to 32 percent. This is just a few points behind President Joe Biden’s 33-point victory margin.

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Harris is far ahead of Trump among Maryland’s likely voters.

Maryland’s Senate election is the most expensive in the state’s history. Republicans targeted this historically blue seat to gain a pickup opportunity. According to the Cook Political Report, it is a contest that Democrats must win to maintain their 51-seat chamber majority. Republicans are expected to flip Democratic-held seat in West Virginia and Montana while all GOP incumbents will be favored to win.

Alsobrooks’ main campaign message is that Democrats should control the Senate. She wants to stop Hogan from pulling off an upset, by reminding voters of his potential election. According to the poll, 59 percent want Democrats to run the Senate in Maryland. Only 34 percent want Republicans to lead it. More than eight in ten of those who support Democratic control back Alsobrooks.

Maryland voters would prefer Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.

Hogan has overcome large polling deficits in the past. In 2014, he won by four percentages points after polling had shown him to be down by nine points early in October that year. The Post-UMD survey shows that voters still remember Hogan fondly, and his focus on budget issues is still relevant. About seven in ten registered voters are in favor of his performance as governor.

Hogan’s favorable rating has fallen from 64 percent to 51 percent. This is down from a Post-UMD survey conducted in March, where he was also rated higher than Alsobrooks, despite being less well-known.

Hogan has failed to convince enough voters that he will be an independent voice within the Senate. According to the poll, 38 percent of voters believe Hogan will act independently from Republican leaders if he is elected to the U.S. Senate. Meanwhile, 49 percent think he will support Republican policies.

Nearly half of Marylanders say Hogan will support Republican policies if elected as a senator.

Michael Hanmer is a professor and the director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland. He said that people can appreciate his work as governor, but they don’t see him as a good fit for the job. Hanmer pointed out Alsobrooks’s campaign ads highlight that dynamic, depicting former Hogan voters who now say they can’t support him because a Republican-controlled Senate could confirm the next Supreme Court justices and enact abortion restrictions.

Alsobrooks has successfully leveraged Marylanders’ strong support for abortion right, which has been motivating Democratic across the nation. Three quarters of Maryland voters believe abortion should be legal most or in all cases. Around twice as many voters believe Alsobrooks will do a better handling of the issue than Hogan. (53 percent vs. 26 percent).

Hogan tried to diffuse attacks in May on his abortion record by describing himself for the first-time as “pro choice” and saying that he would strive to restore Roe V. Wade as law of the country. Alsobrooks, and groups that are allied to her, have criticised Hogan for refusing to spend millions to train more abortion practitioners and vetoing the 2022 abortion bill.

Voters are unsure or skeptical about his position on abortion. 23 percent of voters believe he will support abortion rights in the Senate, while 31 percent say he will support abortion restrictions.

Maryland voters are skeptical that Hogan will protect abortion rights in his role as senator.

Hanmer, in reference to the Supreme Court ruling of 2022 that removed the constitutional right to an abortion, said: “I think Dobbs is really important for the race.” This was a significant shift in women’s rights in this country.

Maryland voters say that abortion is a key issue for them. This number is higher than the 52 percent who rank it as a top consideration. It ranks behind crime and safety (47%) and health care (46%). The voters rank abortion above immigration (37%), but slightly below taxes (40%).

Maryland voters believe Alsobrooks will do a better handling of abortion and health care. They prefer Hogan when it comes to the economy and taxes.

Alsobrooks is favored by more voters than Hogan in the health care sector, with 46 percent to 35 percent. This is an 11-point difference. Voters, however, believe Hogan will do a better work on taxes and the economy by nine points. The poll shows that voters believe the Republican candidate would be better at tackling crime and safety by a small margin of five points.

Hogan’s support is weaker among Democrats and Independents than it was in his 2018 re-election campaign for governor. That race relied on a coalition to cross party boundaries in a state with more registered Democrats than Republicans. According to the poll, Democrats prefer Alsobrooks 77 percent over Hogan. In an October 2018 Post-UMD survey, Hogan received 35 percent of the vote among Democrats registered against Democratic challenger Ben Jealous.

Hogan has a seven-point advantage over Alsobrooks among voters who are registered as independents or third parties. This is a stark contrast to 2018, when Hogan led Jealous 43 points by independent voters. Scott, the Libertarian nominee, has 10 percent of registered independents’ support this year.

Hogan does not have a unified Republican base: only 84 percent of Republicans support him. Meanwhile, 8 percent support Alsobrooks, and 6 percent back Scott. Only 1 percent (of registered Democrats) support the Libertarian Candidate.

Alsobrooks has the highest levels of support among Democrats in Baltimore City (77 to 18 percent).