Mary Sattler Peltola, former Alaskan representative (D), is said to be considering running for governor of Alaska. This has fueled Democratic hopes that the party could win another surprise victory in Alaska.

Peltola was the first Democrat in Alaska to win a House seat since 1950 when she won in 2022. She narrowly lost her re-election bid in 2024, as Alaska voted for President Trump. It was the first time in many years that a statewide Democratic candidate had achieved such success.

Democrats hope she can win again in 2026 in a state that hasn’t had a Democrat in the governor’s office since 2002.

Alaska strategist John-Henry Heckendorn said, “I cannot think of a Democrat better positioned and I believe she would have a strong chance.”

Peltola, who was relatively unknown nationally before winning the special election for the House to fill out the remaining term of late Rep. Don Young (R), after Young’s death in 2022, was a relative unknown. She won the race when her two main Republican rivals, former Gov. Sarah Palin, Nick Begich and other Republicans focused their attacks on each other. This helped her win the race, becoming Alaska’s first Democrat statewide elected office since 2008.

In the general elections of November, she won against Palin and Begich to win a full-term.

Peltola, a Trump district Democrat, was one of the most likely targets for Republicans in 2024. In a year when Alaska would almost certainly vote for Trump in the presidential election, the GOP appeared to be the favorite.

The Republicans also united behind Begich ahead of the election, and avoided fighting each other in order to avoid splitting votes during the first round of the ranked-choice voting process.

Peltola almost won despite the odds. In the first round, she was only 2 points behind Begich and lost the final round by just 2.5 points.

This was a marked improvement over the performance of former Vice President Harris, who lost the state by only 13 points.

“Peltola is putting in one of the best performances for a Democrat in any part of the country.” Heckendorn compared her to Jon Tester, a former Montana senator and another red-state Democrat.

Her past successes and profile would help Democrats in any future office that she runs for. She may even be considering a run for governor.

In an interview with Alaska Public Media after her loss, Peltola said she looked forward to returning to her private life. Holland & Hart, a law firm, announced on Monday that Peltola would be joining the firm as senior director for Alaska affairs.

The Hill reached out to Peltola and asked for a comment.

Cook Political Report reported last month that sources told them Peltola’s old House seat could become a target for Democrats, if she ran in a rematch with Begich. However, running for governor is more likely. Cook reported that the race for the House seat was “frozen” pending Peltola’s decision.

She may also decide to run against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in the year 2026.

Ivan Moore is the founder of Alaska Survey Research. He conducted a survey about a month ago, examining a hypothetical matchup between Peltola versus Sullivan. The poll found that Peltola was viewed as more favorable than the incumbent senator.

He said, “It is hypothetical, but it was during the peak of Mary’s… tenure in office and she was halfway [in] the honeymoon.”

He said that despite Peltola’s superiority in favorability, Sullivan was still leading by 3 points.

Moore explained that “the nature of Alaska” is such that if two candidates are running, one a Democrat, and the other a Republican and they both have a similar name ID and popularity, then the Republican would win by 10 percentage points. It’s not enough to just have good numbers if you are running as a Democrat.

He said that running for governor was a different story, as it would be an open position with Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s (R) tenure is limited. He said that the field is, at least for now, “pretty slim.”

He said, “She would have a massive advantage in identifying herself at the start of the race.” “I’m talking literally hundreds, hundreds, and hundreds of thousands dollars worth of name identification.” She is a household name and there aren’t many. “People are getting there, but still a long way short.”

State Lt. Governor. Nancy Dahlstrom, who is a candidate for Dunleavy’s successor, has a poor reputation and was unsuccessful in her bid to win Begich’s seat last year.

Amber Lee, a Democratic strategist, said that she hopes Peltola will run for governor. She believes Peltola is the best person to “protect” Alaska from federal actions. Lee pointed out that Alaska relies heavily on federal funding to support jobs and Medicaid which covers nearly 250,000 Alaskans.

Congressional Republicans have been working on massive government spending cuts. Trump and the GOP have promised Medicaid won’t be reduced, but critics argue that the extent of cuts would be difficult to achieve without cutting such programs.

Lee stated that “at this point it appears that we are able to really stand up for one another at a local level. I believe that she could protect Alaska against some of the things happening here if she was the governor.”

Heckendorn noted that the Democrats may have a better electorate in 2026, given the expected backlash against Trump. This is standard for a sitting president. She will also benefit from “tailwinds,” which can propel her forward. He noted that even with the headwinds she faced last year, she was almost successful.

He said Peltola has a “authenticity” voters can trust. Peltola is known for her experience in the mining and fishing industries. She also grew up with guns and comes from rural Alaska.

Peltola is the first Alaska Native elected to Congress.

Heckendorn stated that Mary doesn’t need to pretend anything. “I believe she is seen as an Alaskan authentic. “I think that strength will apply to any of those races.”