After years of Democratic dominance, Nevada could be slipping from Biden’s grasp
Silver State has not supported a Republican candidate for president since George W. Bush’s election in 2004. However, polls show Donald Trump leading the race this year.
Nevada has been a promising battleground for Democrats in the last two decades. It was an epicenter of union power, with a young, diverse population, and many elements that make up a winning Democratic alliance.
Recent polls indicate that President Biden may be losing Nevada to his opponents, especially Hispanics, younger voters and Americans with no college degrees.
Since George W. Bush’s 2004 election, no Republican candidate has won Nevada. However, the margins for Democrats have been narrowing in recent presidential elections. Biden won the 2020 election by less than 34,000 votes or 2.4 percentages points. The latest New York Times/Siena College survey shows that Biden’s political landscape in the Silver State has dramatically changed.
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In a hypothetical six-way matchup, which included third-party candidate, Trump won with 41 percent of registered Nevada voters’ support, while Biden received 27 percent. In a matchup between the two candidates, Trump received 50 percent of votes to Biden’s 38%.
Exit polls showed that in the two-way contest, Trump had a 13-point advantage among voters aged 18 to 29 and a 9-point edge among Hispanics — two groups Biden easily won in 2020. Trump had a 21 point lead over Biden among voters without a bachelor’s, a group that has been shifted to the Republican side in recent elections. Only 27 percent of Nevadans, according to the census data, have a Bachelor’s degree.
Jeffry Stolz from Las Vegas, who was watching golf on his mobile in a Las Vegas Park on a recent day, said “Two Bad Choices”. “Trump has been a criminal all his life. Biden’s just too old, he isn’t doing a great job. It’s over. “Go home and live your life.”
Stolz said, “We have no one to fill their shoes.”
Nevada’s economy, which is heavily reliant on conventions and tourism, was one of the hardest-hit in the nation during the pandemic. It has recovered slower than other states. Nevada’s unemployment rate remains one of the highest and its average hourly wage is lower than many other states. This has intensified the inflationary pinch at a period when housing costs are also on the rise. Biden focused on these concerns during a visit he made recently, flanked by large red signs reading: “President Joe Biden.” Lowering Housing Costs.”
Amy Walter, publisher of Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, said that Nevada is one of the most difficult battleground states to survey, due both to its transient nature and the difficulty in reaching the younger population. The performance of Biden could have a significant impact on the key races that are taking place in Nevada, such as the fight for Sen. Jacky Rose’s seat or several House seats.
The real question is, how many are going to show up in November? Walter, referring to Trump’s support from Latinos as shown in the Times/Siena survey, said that if the numbers are accurate and Trump gets 50 percent of their vote it’s game over for Biden.
According to AdImpact’s data, Trump built these leads over the President despite not spending any money on advertising in Nevada. Meanwhile, the Biden campaign, and its allies, have spent more than three million dollars on TV and digital ads.
Trump visited Nevada several times before he defeated his opponents in the Republican caucus run in February. He declared victory in Las Vegas that night, saying: “If we won the state of Nevada it was over for them.”
Biden visited Nevada twice in this year. He launched a field office, met with Las Vegas culinary workers, and stopped for boba in Chinatown. Vice President Harris visited Nevada 15 times in her first year as vice president. She spoke at an event to gather signatures for a ballot initiative that would include abortion rights into the state constitution up until fetal viable, or approximately 24 weeks. Democrats hope that the measure will boost their turnout in November, in a state in which abortion is already protected by a referendum for up to 24 week. According to a Times/Siena survey, 70 percent registered Nevada voters said that abortion should be legal.
Biden’s campaign allies and aides argue that Nevada voters remain disengaged and that the massive door-knocking effort of the culinary union will not start until September. The Biden campaign also argues that the Times/Siena survey showed a larger percentage of independents than in previous presidential elections. A recent Wall Street Journal survey showed Trump to have a smaller lead than Biden, 48-44 in a head-tohead matchup.
Megan Jones is a Nevada-based Democratic Strategist and Senior Advisor to Harris. She said that “Voter opinion here is very fluid.” “Young voters lived a different experience than older adults during the Trump years. Communication is key. It’s crucial to reach out early and often. It will take some time for them to understand the message and to be met where they’re at. “We have 175 days.”
Jones claimed that the Times/Siena survey showed that Nevada has never had an electorate that was 40 percent nonpartisan.
Biden’s campaign also lauded his economic successes — celebrating Dow reaching 40,000 points and an unemployment rate below 4 percent nationwide for 27 months. They claimed that 15 million new jobs were created since Biden assumed office. The President has highlighted specifically the Nevada jobs which will be created by the bipartisan infrastructure bill that he signed 2021. Members of his cabinet, who have made frequent trips to Nevada, are also highlighting jobs that will be created by the Brightline West project which will connect Las Vegas with Southern California and received $3 billion from the infrastructure law.
Shelby Wiltz is the Biden-Harris Nevada campaign manager. She said that in a press release, the campaign was “not taking any vote for granted – mobilizing the core community who delivered Nevada for the President in 2020
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