The Republicans have put Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the winning column for the presidential race of 2024. They hope that momentum will carry over to the contests that determine if their state Supreme Courts maintain left-leaning majority or switch to conservative control this year.

This outcome could be crucial in cases involving abortion, election disputes and voting laws, as well as redistricting and redistricting by state legislatures and Congress.

The amount of money spent in the two-year period on Supreme Court elections is expected to surpass the combined $70 million plus that was spent on them.

Elon Musk is closely associated with President Donald Trump and the Wisconsin race caught his attention. It has also heightened tensions over Trump’s pardons for supporters of Trump who stormed U.S. Capitol in 2021.

“These races are much more visible than before for both sides,” says J.J. Abbott who is the director of Commonwealth Communications in Pennsylvania, a progressive advocacy organization.

In recent years, state Supreme Court elections have been some of the most expensively fought and bitterly contested. This is because these courts play a central role in deciding controversial issues.

Republicans want to flip the courts

After Trump’s victory in both states, Republicans are optimistic.

Both states have a divided government, with Democratic Governors and legislatures either fully or partly under Republican control.

Liberal majorities in both state’s high courts have handed Democrats victories over the last two years, in cases that involved the boundaries of Wisconsin legislative districts and Pennsylvania congressional districts.

In voting rights cases, Democrats and their allies won victories in Wisconsin overturning the ban on absentee-ballot drop boxes as well as Pennsylvania allowing voters to vote provisionally if their mail ballot was rejected.

Musk cited the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling on voting fraud, which was made last July, when he posted a message this week on his social media platform X. “Very Important to Vote Republican for Wisconsin Supreme Court!”

A nonpartisan audit, a report from a conservative law office, and a recount all confirmed that there was not widespread fraud in Wisconsin, in 2020 when absentee voting boxes were used, and that Democrat Joe Biden had won the state’s presidential election.

Musk’s involvement was quickly used by the Democratic-supported candidate to make a fundraiser pitch in Wisconsin’s nonpartisan, officially nonpartisan election.

Liberals have also highlighted comments made by the Republican-backed presidential candidate in the past month, who said that those who stormed into the U.S. Capitol did not get “a fair chance” at trial. Harry Dunn plans to hold a news conference in Wisconsin on February 2nd, criticizing the comments critical of the prosecutions. Harry Dunn was a U.S. Capitol Police Officer who was on duty at the time.

Democrats claim that they will use the state high court as a bulwark in the upcoming elections against the conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court and the Trump Administration, along with a GOP-controlled Congress.

This year, the issue of abortion will play a significant role in state Supreme Court elections in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2023. It also played a key role in last year’s high court races. These races were held the year following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which ended nearly a 50-year constitutional right to an abortion.

Early Wisconsin election will test nation’s mood

Wisconsin will elect a new liberal justice on April 1, and this will determine whether conservatives or liberals control a majority of 4-3.

Nick Ramos is the executive director of Wisconsin Democracy Campaign which tracks election spending. He said that the race in a state could go either direction in a place where voters gave narrow victories to Trump a Republican and U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin a Democrat in November.

Ramos stated that after the presidential election, the people of the United States will be watching Wisconsin closely as a bellwether. It is a litmus-test of the mood in the country.

The Wisconsin Democratic Party has supported Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford. The conservative groups and officeholders have endorsed Brad Schimel, the former Republican Attorney General who is Waukesha County circuit judge.

Wisconsin courts are preparing to hear cases challenging the 1849 state abortion ban, and a 2011 law which effectively ended collective bargaining among teachers and other workers in the public sector.

Outside groups to spend big on advertising

Three Democrats will be running in the general election of November to keep their seats. This puts Democrats’ 5-2 majoritiy on the line. The three justices — Christine Donohue Kevin Dougherty David Wecht – will have to vote “yes” or ‘no” in order to be reelected for another 10 year term.

Pennsylvania courts are currently hearing cases challenging laws that limit the use of Medicaid for abortion costs and disqualify certain mail-in votes.

In 2023, wealthy GOP donors and business associations such as Richard Uihlein, Jeffrey Yass and labor unions will spend more than $70 million on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The Wisconsin race broke the national record for spending on a judicial election.

The dominant theme of that contest was abortion rights. A judge supported by Democrats won the contest and gave the liberals the majority on the court for 15 years.

Wisconsin’s election this year will cost more because the two candidates have already raised more money than they did at this stage in 2023.

In an interview on WISN-AM last year, Schimel said that outside groups were “committed to making sure we regain the majority in this court.” He was confident, “we will have the money we need to win this,”

He launched a statewide TV ad campaign of $1.1 million, the first in the race. Crawford began airing his ads a week after that.

Spending in Pennsylvania’s contest for 2023 was more than $22 million. The Democrat won the election, and his campaign centered on criticizing the conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court.

Both sides strategize on overcoming voter fatigue

Melissa Baldauff, a Wisconsin Democratic strategist, said that voter fatigue was a concern on both sides of the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin. The election came just months after Wisconsin had been inundated by TV ads, appearances by candidates, direct mail, and phone calls during the presidential race.

Baldauff stated that the best strategy for their candidate is to travel across the state and meet with voters directly.

You can never underestimate the importance of meeting people in their natural environment and getting out and about.