In what is likely to be a very tight race, the results of one congressional district in Nebraska may be crucial in determining this year’s outcome.

In the Cornhusker State, the unique electoral system gives an additional vote to the winner in each of its three congressional district in presidential elections. This is in addition to who wins the state-wide election. The 2nd Congressional District which includes Omaha has been a swing area in recent elections, unlike the rest of ruby-red Nebraska. This could be the tipping factor for whoever is elected in November.

Both President Biden, and the former President Trump are likely to keep an eye on this district as the elections approach and invest time in it to gain a small but important advantage in the race for 270.

Ryan Horn, a Republican media strategist based in Omaha, said: “You’ll get a lot more attention from candidates running for the top offices in America since this one is open for grabs.”

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Since 1992, Nebraska has divided its electoral votes using this system. However, it only became relevant during the last few presidential elections. In 2008, the first time Nebraska’s Electoral Votes were Split was when Barack Obama (D), then-candidate, narrowly defeated late Sen. John McCain(R-Ariz. )in the 2nd district by less than one point.

Nebraska had been a Republican stronghold for decades. In 2012, the district overwhelmingly voted for Utah Senator Mitt Romney. It was also in play in 2016. But Trump narrowly won it over Hillary Clinton.

Then, in 2020, it flipped to blue to vote comfortably for Biden with more than six points.

Observers predict that the race in 2024 will come down to a few states with the closest divisions. A race this close could hinge on the 2nd District.

Horn pointed out that Trump and the now-first lady Jill Biden both visited the district in late 2020 during the election campaign, underlining the importance of the district which has an estimated population of around 650,000.

There is only one possible scenario where the results of the districts could determine the winner. Biden is just one vote away from victory if he wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin while Trump wins Arizona Georgia Nevada and North Carolina.

Maine is the only state, other than Nebraska, that distributes Electoral Votes by congressional district. Maine is a predominantly blue state. However, its 2nd Congressional District voted Trump in both 2016 and 2020.

Nebraska’s second district will be crucial if that district votes again for Trump. If the district votes for Biden then he will win; however, if the district votes for Trump the candidates are tied at 269-269 and the House will decide the outcome.

Experts say that even though this is unlikely, both candidates would like to have the votes in their respective columns.

Paul Landow is a former executive of the Nebraska Democratic Party. He said, “It is not important enough for you to spend all your time worrying about it or campaigning on it, but important enough that it can’t be ignored.”

The district may be completely skipped in the presidential election if Nebraska Republicans succeed in their efforts to change the state’s system to the winner-takes-all method, as most other states do. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican, endorsed legislation to alter the system in the first week of this month. Trump praised his support.

The bill’s supporters initially expressed optimism that they would be able to make a change before November. However, the bill failed in a crucial procedural vote just last month, right before the end of the legislative session, and now its future is uncertain.

Vince Powers said that he expected the district to vote again for Biden this year. He noted a split within the GOP, with the Republican Party in Douglas County where Omaha is situated endorsing an opponent who was on the right of the political spectrum to Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb. He pointed to a rift within the GOP in the district, with the Republican Party of Douglas County, where Omaha is located endorsing a right-wing primary opponent to Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb).

Powers stated that Biden is the favorite for the next election and that the Republican fight will hurt them.

He said that he couldn’t imagine a big lead changing suddenly when the Republican Party is divided.

He said that he expected a “concentrated effort” from the Biden camp to win back the district.

Horn said that he did not believe the change in voting system would be successful, but called it “shortsighted”.

Horn stated that it was good to have both parties pay attention every four years to the top race of the country.

Landow said that he does not expect Biden or Trump will spend much time in district, but he expects them to visit at least once prior to Election Day. He said that historically, it is rare for a presidential race to split a congressional district off from the rest the state. However, he still thinks the idea of allowing voters in the district is appealing.

He said that Republicans had tried to change the voting system of the state in the past, and would continue to do so until they succeed or run out time.

Landow explained that “that’s just a part of the way we live around here.” There’s always a fight about the blue dot.