After 18 years of trying to unseat Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester from Montana, Republicans in Big Sky Country now see a potential victory in a heated campaign that is breaking records for spending on campaigns.

Montana voters are tired of negative advertising on TV, radio, their phones, and their mailboxes.

Tester was elected in 2006 by a small margin of 3,500 votes and has been reelected three times despite the dramatic political realignment that took place across the Northern Plains. Analysts say he faces his toughest challenge to date in Republican Tim Sheehy. Sheehy is a wealthy aerospace executive and former U.S. Navy Seal who has aligned himself with the former president Donald Trump.

Both sides are running advertising campaigns that have similar goals: tormenting the opposition.

Sheehy’s ad speaks of Washington’s rampant corruption and labels Tester as “one of the worst”. A Tester ad calls Sheehy “a fake cowboy” for lying about his bullet wound.

The crowd of the incumbent lawmaker was only a few dozen at a weekend Tester event in Bozeman Montana, where Sheehy held an event in August with Trump which drew thousands.

Josh Olsen is an outdoor guide who voted for Tester. He is concerned that Montana’s electorate, as it grows, is becoming more partisan and will not support the grain farmer in the small town of Big Sandy, who relies on his appeal across parties to win him another term.

Olsen said, “I’m concerned 100 percent.” “There are more partisans coming here…If Republicans come here, they will vote for Sheehy.”

Tester, who is 68 years old, was one of half a dozen Democratic senators serving in a region that spanned five states from Nebraska to Canada. He is the only one left in office and Republicans have been trying for years to undermine his support in rural areas.

Montana is the least densely populated state in the U.S. and only a quarter of residents live in cities with 50,000 people or more.

“Outside of the cities in Montana, Republicans made gains in the majority of towns and rural counties,” stated political analyst Jeremy Johnson of Carroll College. “That is a challenge for Democrats.”

Money that is ‘obscene’

Republicans are two seats short in the Senate.

According to Federal Election Commission data and media tracking firm AdImpact, Democrats are desperate to keep their majority in Montana. They will outspend Republicans almost $50 million, according to filings from the Federal Election Commission. The total spending in Montana is expected to surpass $315 million. That’s about $487 per voter, which according to party officials, is a record.

Former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot dubbed the flood of cash into the sparsely-populated state as “absolutely outrageous.” This comes after more than 10 years since the U.S. Supreme Court lifted restrictions on political spending by corporations and unions.

Racicot stated in an interview that he couldn’t even stand to turn on the TV. You’re constantly confronted with anger, grievances, sloganeering – everything that’s going on in these campaign – because of the money involved. It’s a abomination.”

If Sheehy is elected, a Republican majority in the Senate could stifle Democratic agenda if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House. A Tester win could also help Democrats to counteract the actions of a Trump administration.

Many of the funds are traced back to wealthy political committees.

The nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center filed a lawsuit over alleged financial disclosure violations by a protester group, Last Best Place PAC. This has amplified many of the most explosive claims made against Sheehy. The advocacy group also claims that a phony donor was used to hide more than $2.5million in contributions made to political committees including one supporting Sheehy.

It is unlikely that the allegations will be resolved prior to the election.

Trump is on the ballot

Trump won Montana by a large margin in both 2016 and 2020. This is the first time that both Tester AND Trump will be on the ballot in 2024.

Sheehy’s campaign themes are similar to those of Trump and his national party. He is against immigration, inflation, and social issues like transgender kids in sports.

Democrats hoped that the backlash against abortion and women’s healthcare, which was felt in Republican-leaning States after the Supreme Court decision of 2022 to overturn Roe V. Wade, would continue.

Tester has distanced him from Harris and other Democratic leadership. This political isolation is a reflection of the GOP’s gains in rural voters, who used to support Democrats.

Tester’s has raised more than three times as much money as Sheehy, thanks to a large influx of donations from out-of state after Democrats raised concerns about the race.

Sheehy campaign released a statement saying that “Jon Tester may have more money, but dollars do not vote.” “Montanans want common sense. They want a safe border, safe roads, cheap gasoline, police are good, criminals are bad. Boys are boys, and girls are women.”

Lies and lobbyists

Sheehy has tried to make Tester’s Senate term into a liability. He arrived in Montana 10 years ago and compares his self to the early European settlers.

Republicans claim that a pattern exists of donations to the Democrat’s campaign from industries who needed his vote. Tester was previously scrutinized for donations made by bank executives who were affected by the 2018 regulatory rollback and Lockheed Martin workers who benefited from 2021’s defense bill. Tester’s actions were not influenced by the contributions.

He is the top recipient of lobbyist money among Congress members, having received $500,000 this election cycle and $88 million in total.

In an interview after the Bozeman rally, Tester stated that he didn’t know if any lobbyists or donors were present that night.

He said, “I have policies to write and people to join me.” “If it’s right for Montana, then I will support it.”

Sheehy is also receiving money from national groups. He has received $109,000 in lobbyist fees and lobbied officials to get business for his aerial firefighting firm, which he founded along with his brother.

Sheehy is a newcomer to politics and has avoided lengthy interviews. He has faced backlash over remarks he made about Native Americans to supporters and the question of a bullet wound on his arm that he said was from an Afghan firefight.

Sheehy said to a Glacier National Park Ranger in 2015 that he had self-inflicted the wound. Kim Peach (now retired) publicly accused Sheehy earlier this month of lying about the wound.

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