In a special election held just days before Thanksgiving, voters in Utah’s 2nd Congressional District are voting to fill the only vacancy in the U.S. House.

Since September, when Rep. Chris Stewart of Utah resigned after serving six terms as a member of the lower chamber in Congress and citing his wife’s health concerns, there is only one House member.

Now, Democratic state senator Kathleen Riebe, and Republican Celeste Maloy – a former Stewart employee – are vying for his position in the special election to bring the House up to a full number of 435.

It’s unlikely that the solidly red district will see any major upsets in the election, but the voter turnout could provide new insight into the Beehive State.

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The head of the Department of Political Science at Utah State University, Damon Cann said: “I believe that election results are important in determining how competitive this district could be.”

Maloy won the Republican primaries in September, defeating businessman Bruce Hough, and former state representative Becky Edwards, in a three way contest.

Maloy’s running in a solidly red state with Stewart is an advantage, but her inactivity as a voter at the time she launched her campaign has also brought her some scrutiny. She did not vote in either the 2020 or the 2022 elections according to The Salt Lake Tribune.

Democrats are expected to have a tough time in the district that spans the western and south parts of the state plus the northern part of Salt Lake City.

Cann noted that even if Riebe does not pull off a surprising win in the House election, a strong showing by the Democrat would give the party more momentum.

He said that the general assumption is that the Republican Party will win the second district. “The question is — if this is closer than expected, could this seat be contested with a bit more effort, better funding, and better support?”

Stewart won his seat in 2012, from Democrat Jim Matheson who held it since 2000.

Stewart won reelection in the midterm elections of November last year, beating a Democratic opponent by approximately 25 percentage points. Utah’s three other House seats, and its two Senate seats, are held by Republican legislators.

The state was won by the former President Trump in 2016 and again in 2020. Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, gives the district an R+11 Partisan Voting Index. This index measures how each district performs during presidential elections.

Cann said that if Maloy wins it will be a signal to voters to “stay the course” because they expect her to “advocate similar policies and bring similar interests” as former boss.

The election on Tuesday comes just two weeks after Republican candidates were defeated in several key contests during the 2023 off year elections. This election is sandwiched between midterm elections last year, which was also a good night for Democrats, and the presidential election next year.

The results were announced a day later, but the GOP debate in Miami was marred by discord. Some candidates have expressed their frustration at the party’s performance over the last few cycles.

Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analysts at FiveThirtyEight. He noted that Democrats are also doing “unusually” well in special elections. Rakich suggested that Utah Republicans could be in for a “scare” on Tuesday, if this strength continues.

Rakich noted that a Lighthouse Research survey released early in October found Maloy ahead by only 9 points among the registered voters of the state.

Maloy is the winner in terms of fundraising. According to Federal Election Commission filings, she brought in almost $590,000. Riebe brought in about $300,000.

Ben Anderson, Utah Democrats spokesperson, said: “In the five months since the race began, Democrats throughout the state were motivated and inspired by Sen. Riebe’s incredibly strong grassroots campaigns, which promote an agenda that places freedom first for Utahns.”

Anderson stated that the party was confident that the results of the contest on Tuesday would reflect the fact that Riebe’s message “has resonated strongly” with voters from all political backgrounds.

Riebe stated in a press release that, “as I have traveled around the district, I’ve seen voters ready for a new direction — and I believe in their choice.”

The Hill also contacted the Utah GOP to get their comments.

Jordan Giles, the spokesperson for Maloy’s campaign, told The Hill that the Republican candidate’s “conservative message” of fighting federal overreach, and getting spending undercontrol, has resonated with voters. He said he expected to see “the fruits of these efforts on Election Night.”

Blake Moore, John Curtis, and Burgess Owens will be joined by the winner of Tuesday’s Beehive state special election.

According to The Associated Press, Stewart is the second Utah Congressman to have left office before the end of their term in the past six years. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, (R), resigned in 2017 after nine years of service. This triggered a special election. Curtis was elected to his seat in an off-year election. He then won his first term at the 2018 midterm elections.

The Utah polls will close Tuesday at 10 pm Eastern.