Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that President Joe Biden has lost support from voters who do not have college degrees, including Black women, Hispanics, young women and suburban women. This will result in a much closer rematch with his Republican predecessor Donald Trump, compared to what was seen in 2020.

The analysis of 24,000 responses from registered voters to Reuters/Ipsos surveys in 2020 and in 2024 shows that Biden’s popularity among those without a 4-year degree has dropped by 10 percentage points.

In 2020, Americans without a college degree accounted for three of every five voters.

These declines helped to set the stage for what is now a tie race in national opinion polls between Biden, and Trump.

A New York jury found Trump guilty on Thursday of attempting to cover up a payment made to a pornstar.

In a separate Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted on Friday, one in ten Republican voters registered were less likely than before to vote for Trump. This could be a significant number in a tight race. This poll showed Biden as having a 2-point lead, which is far less than the 6-point lead he had at this stage in 2020.

According to the analysis, Biden’s few bright spots are voters who have college degrees or families earning over $100,000 per year.

Reuters analyzed the responses from more than 8,000 voters registered in Reuters/Ipsos surveys between March and May 2024, as well as over 16,000 during the same period of 2020.

Analysis found that voters disenchanted by Biden don’t move en masse towards Trump. Many voters are throwing up their hands, frustrated by their choices, and unsure of what they will decide in the November 5th election.

Mary Jo McConnell (67), of Elba in New York, is no longer a fan of either party after supporting Trump in 2016 and Biden for 2020.

McConnell stated, “They do not provide candidates who I believe are capable of taking on the challenges we face.”

McConnell relies on Social Security for her and her husband. She is a graduate of a 2-year college and has worked at a cannery, as well as a salt mine. She took on two part-time positions in retirement to make extra money when prices rose. McConnell has said that she will vote in November but she is still undecided about who she’ll choose.

The Biden campaign responded to Reuters analysis by saying that national polls do not provide a complete picture of the race, because voters outside the battleground states don’t see the campaign’s message.

Matt Barreto is a pollster with the Biden campaign. He said, “We’re very focused on the states that are competitive and we do outreach and voter contacts and campaign events there.” “National polls can often obscure the progress of a campaign.”

‘IT’S SCARY’

In a May Reuters/Ipsos survey, Biden’s approval rating fell to its lowest level during his presidency with just five months left before the election.

Some former Biden supporters are now ready to consider voting for Trump because of their concerns about the economy.

Julio Miranda, 47 of Canoga park, California, says his household costs have risen dramatically during Biden’s tenure in office.

According to estimates from the U.S. Labor Department, Biden has faced a constant battle against inflation. While it may be down from its peak in 2022, grocery prices have risen by more than 20% since his election. Inflation is being slowed by high interest rates, but this has made home and car purchases more expensive.

Miranda, a Mexican of Mexican descent who has not graduated from college, said: “Forget me buying a home.”

Miranda, whose produce-distribution company has struggled with high costs, called Biden’s Democrats “out of touch”, adding that they don’t care about middle-class people.

Reuters Graphics

Chris Wells (47), owner of a fitness center in Charleston, South Carolina voted for Biden’s 2020 candidacy but is now concerned about his age and health.

Wells, who is 77 years old, said he will not vote for Trump. However, that does not mean he will cast a ballot in favor of Biden, due to concerns about the economy.

You don’t know how demoralizing it is. Wells said, “It’s terrifying.” He joked, “I may write myself in.”

Biden won the 2020 elections by a margin of about 7 million votes, but because the Electoral College is based on state-by-state voting, the U.S. Presidential election can be won or lost in seven states that are highly competitive, including Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, where Biden won by razor-thin margins. These states could easily flip over to Trump with a little erosion.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. complicates matters, as he is running for office as an independent, and has received double digit support in several polls.

Jacob Rubashkin is an analyst at Inside Elections. This nonpartisan research organization.

“Any significant drop will be magnified, because the distance between him and Trump in the most important states was very small.”

THE CRUMBLING COALITION

Reuters selected early March through mid-May for both election years in order to make the closest comparison possible. Biden had become the leading Democratic presidential candidate by March 2020 and the U.S. began its slide into a COVID pandemic.

Biden’s percentage of registered voters without a college degree has decreased by 10 points since early March this year. In 2020, it was 42%. Trump’s non-college educated voter share is marginally up to 44%, from 42%.

This year, a slightly higher share of voters without a college education say they would vote for a third party candidate or not at any time.

Biden’s support among college graduates is down by one percentage point, whereas Trump’s is down three points. A slightly higher share of college grads is considering third-party candidates, or will not vote.

Biden’s percentage of voters who live in households earning less than $50,000 per year has dropped 14 points, to 33%. Trump’s is up by 5 points, to 40%. Trump’s share of voters in households earning more than $100,000 is down by 4 points, to 38%. Biden’s share is down by 2 points to 43%.

Reuters Graphics

Biden’s support has declined in other demographic groups who played a key role in his victory in 2020.

Biden’s popularity dropped 11 points among voters aged 18-29 to 37%. Trump has a slight lead with this group at 30%. However, a larger share of voters are still undecided and/or won’t be voting.

Biden’s standing among Hispanic women has dropped 19 points, to 39% from 58%. Comparatively to 2020, a slightly larger share of respondents say they’re undecided, will not vote, or won’t leave.