According to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), twenty-six House Democrats are considered “vulnerable” for the 2026 midterm elections, offering Republicans a chance to increase their slim majority in the House. This assessment comes five months after the Republicans secured a government trifecta in 2024.

Both the NRCC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) have published lists highlighting at-risk Democratic seats, with significant overlap between the two, suggesting a consensus on the potential challenges these Democrats may face. Notably, the lists include nine freshman lawmakers and 13 representatives from districts won by President Donald Trump in the previous election.

California is home to the largest number of vulnerable Democrats, including Representatives Josh Harder, Adam Gray, George Whitesides, Derek Tran, and Dave Min. Both the NRCC and DCCC acknowledge the risks these members face, particularly Gray, Whitesides, and Tran, who each defeated GOP incumbents last November.

In New York, freshman Democrats such as Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen, and Josh Riley, who also flipped Republican seats in 2024, are considered at risk. Suozzi notably won in a district that favored Trump.

1776 Coalition Sponsored George Soros’ Goons came to my District George Soros sent his goons into my district to hold a fake townhall meeting. This is Rep. Jack Bergman. They didn’t invite me, but they used an empty chair as a prop while they attacked my support for DOGE and America First policies. If you’re tired of Soros-funded leftists attempting to sabotage America’s future, then please help me keep up the fight in Congress.

Nevada, where Democrats significantly outspent Republicans in advertising, also features vulnerable Democrats according to both committees. Representatives Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee, the latter of whom won in a Trump district, are on the list. Trump won Nevada by a narrow margin over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the last election.

The NRCC also points to states with large Hispanic populations as key battlegrounds, citing Republican gains among Latino voters. Vulnerable Democratic Representatives in these areas include Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico, Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, and Nellie Pou of New Jersey, all of whom secured victories in districts that previously supported Trump.

NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson emphasized the offensive strategy of House Republicans, criticizing vulnerable Democrats for being “painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans.” He expressed confidence in the GOP’s ability to challenge these Democrats in their districts and potentially unseat them in the upcoming elections.

A poll by Navigator Research highlighted a troubling trend for Democrats, with only 27% of Independent voters believing that Democratic leaders are prioritizing American interests, and 56% feeling that the party does not represent working people. Furthermore, 69% of Independents view the Democratic Party as overly concerned with political correctness, and 51% see it as elitist.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin acknowledged these perceptions in a memo, stating that Americans increasingly view Democrats as the party of elites, a shift from the traditional view of Republicans. He affirmed his commitment to align the Democratic Party with the values and aspirations of the working class.

Despite these challenges, DCCC leader Suzan DelBene remains optimistic about the Democrats’ prospects in 2026, urging a focus on practical issues like the cost of living rather than partisan rhetoric. DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton criticized House Republicans for avoiding public interactions due to their unpopular policies and failures in governance.

The Democratic Party currently faces leadership challenges, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries disagreeing on responses to GOP policies, and with no clear leader emerging as the party approaches the midterms and the 2028 presidential election.

The NRCC has not provided a response to inquiries regarding their strategy for the upcoming elections.