ActiVote’s latest national polling shows that former President Donald Trump is now ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who had a 5.4-point lead less than three weeks earlier.

According to this poll, Trump is currently ahead of Harris by 1.2 percentage points (50.6 percent vs 49.4%).

Harris has been in the lead since August 7th. This is the first time Trump was in front, except for a short moment at the end of September. This is not a one-off result in the tracking poll. In the last few months, Trump’s popularity has steadily increased while Kamala’s has dwindled.

Here is a breakdown of internals:

Trump is the leader among suburban and rural voters. Harris is leading among urban voters. Harris leads the younger voters (18-49), while Trump leads the older voters (50+). Harris is the leader among women while Trump is leading among men. Both parties get about 80% of the people who are affiliated (30 states), or estimated to be associated (20 states), with their respective party. Harris, however, has a slight lead among independents. Trump is the leader among White voters. Harris, on the other hand, gets 73% of Black votes and a majority of Latinos (59%) who vote. Harris leads among voters with low incomes and college degrees, but there are only slight differences in income and education. Trump is the leader among voters with high incomes, and those who have some college education.

Trump also earns a staggering 27 percent of black votes (Harris is at 73%) and 41 percent Hispanics. (Harris gets 59%) These numbers are closer to 10 and 25 percent for a Republican.

ActiVote’s tracking poll conducts its surveys over a period of five days. These results cover the period from October 3-8 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

This poll is in line with the latest trend in national polling, which shows that the race has narrowed to an average of 1.3 points in favor of Kamala in the seven most recent polls. This average does not include the ActiVote survey.

The trend in the same poll is the most important thing to know. Trend is more important than result and Trump is on a trend.