The already-rocky gamble to avoid a shutdown of the government is the last trial in which Speaker Mike Johnson (R, La) will be put. The November election is just around the corner, and this could have a major impact on his political future.

If the Speaker can successfully implement conservative priorities, or extend funding into the next year in the hope of avoiding a year-end omnibus, it would be a huge win. He has been walking a tightrope ever since he soared to the top position last year.

If his plans fail, he could face criticism from both conservatives who are angry at his handling of fiscal issues and moderate Republicans that question his strategy.

Johnson’s relationship with the former president Trump is crucial if he is to remain as leader of House Republicans in 2019.

Trump called on Tuesday to “CLOSE DOWN” on a continuing resolutin (CR) that would fund the government beyond Sept. 30, if House Republicans did not “get absolute assurances about Election Security.” Republicans included a Trump supported measure to require proof for citizenship in the six-month-long CR. However, the voting part is a non starter for Senate Democrats and White House who claim noncitizen voter voting is already illegal, and are worried it will burden eligible voters.

House Republicans are not keen to force a government shutdown, which could be seen as damaging to GOP legislators during election season.

Johnson had said earlier that day, “I am aware of the dangers associated with a shutdown.” “I know the risks, and I’m going to do what is right and see what happens,” Johnson said earlier in the day.

Johnson responded to Trump’s tweet by saying that Trump was “exactly saying what I have said, namely, we need assurances about election security and funding the government.”

Already, the more difficult scenario looks likely.

Johnson’s CR plan was opposed by a wave of Republicans, ranging from fiscal conservatives who were against any temporary fix to defense conservatives worried about the impact on the military. The measure is unlikely to pass a scheduled vote on Wednesday.

It’s all about Johnson’s ability to lead. “That’s it,” said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who unsuccessfully tried to remove Johnson from his post earlier this year.

What is Speaker Johnson going to say? Will he fight for it? If he isn’t willing to fight, why not? Greene asked.

Johnson told reporters on Monday that there was no fallback plan in case the stopgap package failed. Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., chair of the House Appropriations Committee said that the Republicans have “multiple, you know things” available in case of failure.

Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., who opposes the continuing resolution as it extends funding that he does not agree with, wanted to keep the focus on disagreements in policy rather than issues of leadership, but still made some criticisms.

“I have not been impressed by what I have seen thus far. I think Speaker Johnson is an amazing person. He is a constitutionally-guided member. Mills stated that he saw a weakness in the leadership. “I know that he is only one of four legs, if you like, and that he faces people such as [House Minority leader Hakeem Jeffreys (D.Y.), Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell(R-Ky. ) and Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer(D.Y .)]. The American people will accept that we fight and lose. “They can’t accept that we don’t fight at all.”

Johnson is in a familiar situation, as are the House Republicans. Since the GOP gained control of the chambers in 2023, the House has been shaken by disagreements over fiscal policy. One scenario could be eerily similar and indicate trouble for the Speaker.

McCarthy, the former speaker of the Californian House and Johnson’s predecessor in office, angered fiscal conservatives when he chose to continue government funding as a “clean stopgap” — a choice he made because a package that combined a funding extension along with a border legislation failed due to Republican resistance.

The House Freedom Caucus, a conservative hardline group in the House, had called for a six month CR which included the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE). Now, it’s the opposition of some Freedom Caucus Members that has derailed this funding plan.

Moderates are frustrated by the fact that, despite leadership trying to be conservative, hard-line members still oppose legislation.

The Hill quoted a moderate House Republican as saying, “That’s a side of the Party that is kind of taking its legs out. So he tries accommodating them and still gets hit by this same group.”

Johnson said that he would run for the Speakership if Republicans retained control of the House.

Republicans and senior Republican staffers say that the most important factor in determining whether Johnson will lead the House GOP the following year is whether Republicans are able to maintain and grow their current majority. They also say that they will be watching how he deals with the deadline of Sept. 30, which is when the government shutdown ends.

The funding battle may not be the most important legislative issue for Republicans who are critical of Johnson’s leadership. Greene’s dissatisfaction with Johnson’s handling earlier in the year of funding issues and his move to push funding through for Ukraine led to Greene forcing a vote in spring to remove him from his position. Democrats came to Johnson’s aid to put the matter on hold.

Johnson’s move to CR is seen as a way for him to improve his leadership chances by those on the other side of the aisle.

“His problem is that he puts the majority at risk to keep his job. He risks his job to keep the majority. It’s also because they are unable to govern. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., said that this is the real conundrum he’s facing.

One House Republican who discussed the strategy with Johnson said that his support for SAVE Act, as part of CR, is based on his convictions and not his political status.

The GOP member stated, “He makes decisions based on his opinion of what is best for him and not to ensure that I keep my job.”

Johnson has stated that he acts on principle.

Johnson, in a press conference on Tuesday, said that he felt a deep conviction about the SAVE Act.

Even those who disagree with Johnson’s tactics continue to show him grace because of how he tried to manage a razor-thin GOP majority.

Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., referring to Johnson’s early years said: “I wasn’t happy with some of the decisions that were made at the time.” “But I think that he has become more than battle-tested since then.”