Joe Biden boasted at the beginning of the year about how the inflation rate was dropping and that it was lower than any other “major economy” at the time. This is no longer the case, and the Federal Reserve has lost the battle to curb price increases. The president’s extravagant spending is to blame, but despite Democratic claims, the data continues to show that inflation is increasing. Voters are aware of it.

On a 12-month average, the consumer price index rose from 3.1% in January to 3.4% by April. CPI rose by 1.4%, or 4.2%, on an annualized base, in absolute terms over the last four months. This is more than double the Fed’s maximum 2% target. Core CPI, which is a Fed preferred measure, and excludes volatile categories such as food and energy has decreased slightly on a 12-month basis, from 3.9% to 3.6%. However, the core CPI increased by 1.5% absolute, or 4.5% annually.

The producer price index, which is a leading indicator, because wholesale prices eventually get passed onto consumers, has also more than doubled from January to 2,2% per year. PCE inflation in March reached its highest level since 2023, despite the fact that April’s personal consumption expenditure data is yet to be released. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, has soared from 3.7% to 4.4% on a three-month, annualized basis. This is a more accurate picture than an annual measure.

Biden may claim otherwise, but voters are aware of this and it influences their expectations. In the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey conducted in April, consumers’ median annual inflation expectations rose from 3% up to 3.3%. Expectations for gasoline inflation increased to 4.8% while those for food prices rose to 5.3%.

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On this front, survey respondents were also mostly correct. Since Biden’s election, the real average weekly income has fallen by almost 5%. The Fed’s efforts to bring down inflation from a near double-digit high in 2022 seemed on track to reverse some of the losses. However, since the end last year, real average weekly earnings have shrunk another 0.5%. Inflation, the silent tax imposed by a government greedy enough to run up successive $2 trillion deficits, has eaten away the equivalent of one and a half paychecks each year from the 26 paychecks of an average worker over the last three years.

The average voter may not be able to understand macroeconomics in detail, but they are aware that Biden’s fiscal policy is diametrically opposite from the Fed’s monetary tightening. A recent Financial Times/Michigan Ross survey found that the majority of registered voter respondents said their finances had worsened since Biden became president, and half of those respondents blamed his policies.

Biden’s refusal to abandon his inflationary fiscal policy is undermining the only good news he could deliver before Election Day. The Fed had projected that it would cut the federal funds rate at least three time from its 23-year-high at the beginning of the year. However, the worsening inflation, further fuelled by Biden’s open borders, and the regressive cancellation of student debt for the upper classes has led the bond markets to price a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed will not reduce interest rates before the election.

Biden may have the ability to endure the pain of tightening monetary policy to curb inflation. But with interest rates and price increases higher than any other generation, he has only himself to blame for voters sending him into a belated retirement.