Kevin McCarthy, House Republican leader, is fighting for his political survival. He has the potential to be the first speaker nominee in 100 years without the support of his colleagues in a high stakes vote for the gavel.

Tuesday’s meeting will see lawmakers meet to begin a new era in divided government after the House was given over by Democrats following midterm elections losses. The Senate is still in Democratic hands but only barely. House Republicans are keen to confront President Joe Biden’s agenda, two years after the Democratic Party had monopolized power in Washington.

First, the House Republicans must elect a speaker.

McCarthy is expected to succeed Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, but there are no guarantees of his success in the election. The California Republican faces a host of detractors in his own ranks. McCarthy failed to win over his detractors despite repeated attempts to harangue, cajole and win them over — even with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.

The noontime showdown could easily turn into a long House floor fight. This spectacle will divide the Republican Party, weaken its leadership, and consume the first days in the new Congress.

Doug Heye, a former Republican leadership senior adviser, stated that “This is much more important than just one person.” “It’s not about whether Republicans can govern.”

The House Republicans will gather behind closed doors in preparation for the floor action. The new Congress will be joined by their families as they prepare to take office in the House and Senate during the two-year legislative session.

Inspired by former president’s Make America Great Again slogan, a new generation of Trump-aligned Republicans is leading the opposition against McCarthy. They don’t believe McCarthy is hard enough or conservative enough to defeat Democrats. It is reminiscent of the last time Republicans regained the House majority after the 2010 midterms. The tea-party class brought in a new era for hardball politics and eventually sent Speaker John Boehner into early retirement.

It takes typically a majority of the 435 House members (218 votes) to be elected speaker. McCarthy has a narrow majority of 222 seats, so he can only afford a few detractors. If some legislators are absent, or simply do not vote, a speaker can win with less than 218 votes.

Despite weeks of closed-door meetings, promises of changes to House rules and many open-door meetings, McCarthy failed to win over the core of right-flank Republicans. Nearly twelve Republicans have expressed concern about McCarthy.

“Kevin McCarthy doesn’t have the 218 vote to be speaker,” Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa), chairman of Freedom Caucus, and a leader in Trump’s 2020 campaign, stated in an interview with The Associated Press. “Unless something drastically changes, that’s where I’m going to be.”

McCarthy and Perry met late Monday evening in the Capitol speaker’s office. A Republican aide confirmed that they had spoken on condition of anonymity.

However, the possibility of holdouts causing havoc Day One has sparked a counter-offensive by Republicans frustrated at the threat to the functioning of the new Congress.

McCarthy supporters were vocal but not as vocal and started their own campaign called “Only Kevin” to stop the opposition and pledge support for him.

McCarthy’s only viable opponent was yet to be found. Rep. Andy Biggs (Republican from Arizona), was running against McCarthy to be a conservative alternative, but it was not expected that he would win a majority. McCarthy beat him in November’s nominating contest, with 188 to 31.

Rep. Steve Scalise, second-ranking House Republican from Louisiana, would be an obvious choice. A conservative widely liked and seen as a hero by many after surviving a horrific mass shooting at a congressional baseball practice in 2017, Scalise is considered to be the next choice.

McCarthy and Scalise were once rivals but have now become a team. Scalise’s office dismissed Monday’s suggestion by another Republican that Scalise was calling about Scalise’s race.

McCarthy pledged to fight until the end, taking multiple rounds of painful floor votes — something that was unheard in Congress since the 1923 disputed speaker’s race.

“It would have been nice if it could be ready to go Jan. 3,,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who will be the chairman of House Judiciary Committee. “But, you know, it’s possible that it won’t happen on first ballot. That’s when it pushes things back.”

The House can’t fully form without a speaker — it cannot appoint its committee chairs, engage in floor proceedings, and launch the investigations into the Biden administration, which are core to the Republicans agenda.

The House’s turmoil on the first day could contrast with the Capitol’s other side, where Senator Republican leader Mitch McConnell will be officially the longest-serving leader of a party in history.

McConnell, despite being in the Senate’s minority, where Democrats have a slim 51-49 majority of the vote, could be a solid partner for Biden as he seeks bipartisan wins in the new era divided government. They were scheduled to meet later in the week in Kentucky, the GOP leader’s home state, to celebrate federal infrastructure investment that has created a critical bridge linking Kentucky and Ohio.

McCarthy’s candidacy to be speaker should have seemed almost certain. He was approachable and friendly and led his party to the majority. He raised millions of dollars for campaigns and traveled across the country to recruit new lawmakers to run for office.

McCarthy, however, has been there before. He abruptly dropped out of the race for speaker in 2015 after it became clear that he didn’t have support from conservatives to succeed Boehner.

The main request from the protesters is for McCarthy to reinstate a rule that allows any lawmaker to “move to vacate the chair” — essentially, to call a vote to oust the speaker.

Pelosi removed the rule following conservatives using it to threaten Boehner’s ouster. But McCarthy was willing to reinstate it — but at a higher threshold that required at least five lawmakers.

McCarthy wrote in a weekend note to colleagues that he would work with all members of his party to create conservative consensus.

Perry sent a new letter of concern signed by eight other Republicans, expressing concern that the House rules package does not address their concerns.