Six states shift toward GOP in wake of Biden nominee angst: Cook Political Report

The Electoral College has shifted in six states to the Republicans’ favor, thereby boosting the former president Donald Trump. However, the future of President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee is still uncertain.

Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from “toss up” to a “lean Republican”. Minnesota and New Hampshire were also shifted to a “lean Democrat” state. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District was also shifted to a “lean Democrat” from indicating “likely”.

Dave Wasserman, of the Cook Political Report, said that the notion that the presidential [race] was a toss-up was already a stretch before the debate. “Today, Trump is clearly ahead of Biden and has a more realistic path to 270 Electoral Votes.”

Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 debate is cited by the election analyst as a cause for rating changes. The lackluster performance of the president onstage has led to questions about whether he’s the right candidate for the party to defeat Trump. The answer to the question is still not clear and there is no consensus after a long meeting of House Democrats on Tuesday.

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Amy Walter, Editor-in Chief of the Cook Political Report, said that “Insiders” she spoke to over the weekend predicted a ‘deluge’ of Democratic defections from Congress by Monday. As of Tuesday morning those desertions amounted to little more than a trickle. Nevertheless, many nervous Democrats on the down-ballot and their donors hope that Team Biden will gracefully announce its exit from the race, as a result of the worsening polls and the aggressively antagonistic media. This possibility seems remote at this time.

Walter went on to say, “We cannot ignore the uncertainty at this time, but we can soberly evaluate where things are today and where they will likely go next.”

Trump increased his lead over Biden to 6 percentage points following the first presidential discussion of the cycle. A poll conducted between June 30 and July 2 showed that the former president had a lead of an average 4 points in Pennsylvania, Georgia Michigan, Arizona Wisconsin and Nevada.

Cook Political Report reports that Trump leads by more than 3 points in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, while Biden is less than one percentage point ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump has a 0.7 point lead in Pennsylvania.

Walter pointed out that, given the tight margins in the electorate’s favor, even a shift of 2 points can have a significant impact on the presidential race.

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Walter wrote: “For instance, if Trump won the national popular vote with a margin of three points, that would be an improvement of seven points from his 2020 performance.” “In other terms, any state or districts that Biden won by 8 points or less will be competitive.”

Democratic politicians, pundits and strategists have raised the alarm about whether Biden’s candidacy is the best way for the party to achieve its goals of retaking control of the House, maintaining the majority in the Senate and keeping the White House. Several House Democrats refused to comment on the state of the Democratic Conference as they left the headquarters of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee today.

Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-MD, said that there was a limit to how long the disunity could last within the caucus.

Ivey stated, “I think we’ll have to wrap it up before the convention.” “But, I know, hopefully we can sort of nail down this topic sooner than later.”

Walter wrote in her analysis that Democrats hoped the debate would be held at the end June to give them a chance highlight Trump’s concerns and Biden’s record as an administrator. Republicans on Capitol Hill are now feeling a sense of relief, as the focus is on Democrats and their criticism of Biden.

Some Democrats argue that this rhetoric, and calls by colleagues to Biden to step aside will only further weaken President Obama and the Democratic Party.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-CA, said: “We need to bring the focus back to Trump.” “And it is important, because there comes a point where the conversation in your family has to be refocused on winning,” said Jared Huffman (D-CA).