The former president Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for President again in 2024. The former South Carolina governor, his last rival, is expected to give a dominant performance. Nikki Haley’s performance in New Hampshire on Tuesday could be crucial to Trump’s victory.

Florida Gov. Haley is the only one left standing in the race against Trump after Ron DeSantis backed out of the race Sunday. He suspended his campaign before the New Hampshire primaries and endorsed Trump.

Trump has a massive and growing advantage over Haley, in the Granite State. One poll even had Trump with over 60%.

In every recent poll, Trump has a majority of support at or above 50 percent and Haley is below 40 percent.

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Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman, dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump on that same night. DeSantis followed suit and backed Trump at the weekend.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-SC, also an ex-candidate who quit late last year backed Trump instead of Haley even though the latter had appointed him to U.S. Senate more than a decade earlier. Scott had been sought by both Haley and Trump, so Scott’s decision to support Trump is particularly hurtful. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum had also endorsed Trump prior to the Iowa caucuses. He joined Ramaswamy, Scott, and others in a grand finale that was fitting of Trump’s GOP-controlled era.

Haley will finally get her long-desired shot at Trump on Tuesday in the first-in the-nation primaries. However, due to the rapid consolidation of Republicans behind Trump at this point and given the recent changes in the political landscape, anything less than an outright shock victory for Haley over Trump would doom the future prospects of her campaign. Haley will not be competing in the Nevada GOP caucuses on February 8, but she will compete in the U.S. Virgin Islands’ caucuses on that same day. If she decides to stay on past Tuesday, the real battle would take place in South Carolina on February 24, which holds its first-in the-South primary. It is highly unlikely that she will survive this long, particularly when Trump has a much bigger lead in the public polls than he does in New Hampshire. She could be set up for a humiliating defeat in her own state.

The New Hampshire primaries are not as much about who will win. Haley’s most important surrogate at this point is New Hampshire’s Republican Governor. Chris Sununu — has tried to lower expectations for her from projecting victory to hoping for a stronger-than-expected second-place finish. Haley’s chances of winning are slimmer now that the race has been reduced to just two candidates.

New Hampshire voters, in other words, could put Donald Trump over the top by delivering him a strong majority and a double-digit win over Haley — essentially finishing her off and ending this primary-that-never-really-was altogether and clearing the way for Trump very early in the cycle. If Trump wins by a double-digit lead over Haley then her future is essentially ruined. She could withdraw Tuesday night after the race has been called or a few days later. This means that another Republican candidate for 2024, the former New Jersey governor, has dropped out. Chris Christie was absolutely right when he said Haley would be “smoked” on a hot microphone.

Haley’s exit from the race is likely to occur sooner than later, with a second decisive Trump win on Tuesday. This leaves no serious challenges, however futile, to Trump’s campaign to become Republican nominee for President for the third consecutive presidential election. This would make Trump the Republican presumptive nominee for President this year. He would only need to check boxes to get the necessary delegates.

If he is successful, Trump will be able to wrap up the race a month-and-a-half before Super Tuesday, which would be a huge boon going into the general elections. Trump and Republicans would save a lot of money if they could turn against Democrat president Joe Biden. In this scenario, Biden would still be facing a primary challenge by his remaining opponents, Rep. Dean Phillips(D-MN), and author Marianne Williamson, as the GOP looks towards the general election. This allows Republicans to focus more time on the most valuable commodity in politics – winning the general elections and putting pressure on Biden and Democrats. Trump could also begin his campaign in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin early, and bring pressure on Biden and Democrats in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and elsewhere.

Trump said to Breitbart News late in December that he intended to make a “heavy-play” for bluer state like New York, New Jersey and Minnesota. It is also in the best interest of those states to seal the deal and become the presumptive candidate before the end of January. Trump can take a risk-free plunge into these areas now. He could also use the time to fight his legal battles or help Republicans defeat a deal on immigration that is brewing in the U.S. Senate. Trump’s ability to wrap up the nomination early, which begins with Haley being defeated in New Hampshire, is invaluable and bad for Biden.