A week into China’s easing, uncertainty over virus direction

One week after China relaxed some of its strictest COVID-19 containment rules, there was still uncertainty about the future of the pandemic in China’s largest nation.

Although there are not yet any official signs of the feared surge in critically ill patients, social media posts and business closures are all evidence that large numbers of people are being infected. There was an epidemic of cold medicine and testing kits in Beijing and other parts of China. Some hospital staff have returned to work while others stay home.

Various everyday products are seeing sales rise as more people use the internet to share “remedies” that may not be true. One of the biggest producers of canned yellow peaches was a victim to a shortage. The product was thought to be particularly nutritious and was therefore popular on social media.

After trying for years to find the virus, the government has come to the conclusion that it is virtually impossible to eradicate the virus from every infected person. However, it is not clear what this means for reporting serious cases.

Ad

While Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing have made significant investments in health care, communities and cities in the rural hinterlands have much less resources to manage major outbreaks.

Chinese are more dependent than other citizens on hospitals for minor illnesses, despite the fact that they have a wider cultural and economic base. Yale professor of public Health Xi Chen stated that the government asked those suffering from mild symptoms to recover at home. However, if they do not, it could cause strains.

Chen stated that “if people don’t have such a culture to stay home and keep those resources for the sicker people, then it could easily crash our system.”

Beijing has tripled the number fever clinics to more than 300. Associated Press journalists visited these clinics and found them calm, orderly, and with very few signs of overcrowding. There were 50-60 people in line at a children’s hospital Wednesday afternoon. Three others had shorter lines. One clinic in Beijing had a few elderly patients who were given IV drips and one that was being inhaled pressurized oxygen.

Although the health system in large cities seems to be doing well, Chen warns that it is too early to predict when problems will become more severe. Chen stated that the January Lunar New Year, when millions of people travel to see their family, will present another challenge.

He said, “I am concerned that it could be an event of super-spreaders.”

Chen stated that winter is the most difficult time to relax restrictions because the virus circulates faster in winter.

The country should also increase its elderly vaccination rate and improve its intensive care capacity. Although most of China’s population has been vaccinated, many older people have not received a booster shot with the country’s vaccines. Although Chinese vaccines have been shown to be effective in preventing death and hospitalization, they require at least three doses to be effective.

China claims that 30% of those 60 years and older have not had three shots. The reason for the hesitation is partly due to the original government directives which discouraged people over 59 from being vaccinated. However, there have been longstanding concerns about vaccine safety in China.

The government announced Wednesday that it will offer a fourth shot for those who are in vulnerable groups.

On Thursday, Beijing’s downtown was almost empty. Those businesses and restaurants that were open on Thursday saw few customers. The empty streets were a reflection of both the fact many people are staying at home because they are sick, and also that some people don’t want to venture out in order to avoid being infected.

Experts are increasingly stating that China’s zero-COVID policy of locking down, quarantines, and mandatory testing is unsustainable, particularly in light of the increasingly severe restrictions imposed by the more dangerous omicron variant.

These measures were blamed on creating massive social stress and hindering the economy. After protests in Beijing and other cities over the restrictions, the easing began. These protests grew to calls for President Xi Jinping’s resignation and for the Communist Party to resign — a level not seen since decades.

Although the Dec. 7, 2008 relaxation of measures allowed for more avenues for the spread of the coronavirus across the country than before, it is not clear what the full impact will be.

The economic news is mixed. On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s value added industrial output rose by 2.2% year-on–year. Urban unemployment rates rose slightly to 5.7% from 5.5% in November. China doesn’t survey unemployment in major cities.

The company that makes Apple’s iPhones has announced Wednesday that it will ease restrictions at its largest Chinese factory. This was due to thousands of workers leaving and slowed down production. Foxconn Technology Group announced that it will end the “closed loop” system in China, which required workers to speak at their workplaces or dormitories.

Officially, Xi’s government remains committed to stopping virus transmission. The Communist Party’s latest actions suggest that it will accept more cases without imposing quarantines on travel and businesses.

Mi Feng, spokesperson of the National Health Commission, repeated that shift in tone on Wednesday.

Mi stated that the current focus on epidemic prevention and control has moved from prevention and controlling infection to medical treatment.

The lack of reliable statistics or projections makes it difficult to gauge China’s readiness.

Only confirmed cases of symptoms that have been detected by public testing facilities are currently reported by the National Health Commission.

This week, the government announced that asymptomatic cases were no longer being counted. Home tests results will not be recorded.

China’s death toll is still low at 5,235, compared to 1.1 million in the United States. Public health experts warn that these statistics cannot be directly compared.

Chinese health authorities only count those who died from COVID-19 directly, and exclude those whose underlying conditions were made worse by the virus. Many other countries have guidelines that state that COVID-19-related deaths are those where it is a contributing factor or cause of death.

Experts agree that this is a long-standing practice in China. However, questions have been raised about whether officials are trying to minimize the numbers.