Miami-Dade’s Democratic mayor won big this week. Is a run for Florida governor next?

Daniella Levine Cava, after a resounding reelection as Miami-Dade County Mayor, may be facing a more difficult race in the near future: Florida Governor.

The first-term Democrat, who was elected in 2010, won another four-year term by a large margin on Tuesday night. She defeated a number of mostly Republican candidates, despite the race being declared nonpartisan. Levine Cava was competitive and dominant in Democratic strongholds, but also won some of the Republican-leaning areas of Miami-Dade.

After months of whispers about a possible Levine Cava statewide run, her camp now points to her bipartisan backing in Miami-Dade for a possible launchpad for a governor’s race in 2026 in a state which hasn’t been Democratic since the 90s.

“When she goes around the state, everyone looks at her.” Christian Ulvert, Levine Cava’s longtime consultant and political advisor, stated at a press conference on Wednesday morning that the results of last night confirmed this. “Democrats talk about ‘What is our future?’ and the future lies not only with women mayors but also with men mayors.”

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Ulvert’s comments about a hypothetical run for Levine Cava in the state capture what political insiders are chatting about since at least a full year.

Detractors say it’s a targeted buzz to keep Levine Cava’s formidable fundraising operations going even if Levine Cava decides not to run for statewide office. Ulvert is seen by others as pushing for another well-funded race he can run despite the longshot odds.

David Custin is a Republican consultant who responded to a text asking what he thought about a possible Levine Cava governorship with hysterical laughter emojis. He pointed out that Ulvert had managed Phil Levine’s failed governor campaign six years earlier, the former Democratic mayor of Miami Beach.

He wrote that “Levine Cava’s bid for governor in the year 2026 is not as credible as Miami Beach Mayor Levine’s campaign in 2018”. Ulvert will make a lot of money again in a campaign which will end in utter defeat.

Some of her admirers wonder why she would give up half of her second-term to run in an uphill campaign in a state with 1 million more Republicans than Democrats. Some see her as a centrist Democrat with the potential to appeal to both parties and win independents when a governor’s term is up in 2026. Ron DeSantis is leaving office.

State said that “the mayor checks many boxes.” Shevrin, the head of Miami-Dade’s Democratic Party and a possible candidate for governor 2026, is Sen. Shevrin. “The mayor has truly shown that she is the people’s Mayor.”

Levine Cava is yet to provide definitive answers on a race in 2026.

When asked Tuesday night if her interest in running for Governor was still there, she responded: “I’m focused on completing the work that I committed to do.” It’s what I plan to do.

A reporter asked at the press conference on Wednesday if there was little hope for Florida to reverse the same trend as Miami-Dade, where a Democratic Mayor is in office.

She said, “I am very focused on Miami.” “I believe my race has brought people out who were maybe not as enthusiastic before.” “I hope it has created momentum to carry us forward.”

Levine Cava has raised $5 million to support her reelection since replacing a Republican term-limited mayor in 2020. Miami-Dade has lost approximately 110,000 Democratic votes and gained 51,000 Republicans during the same period.

The trend favors the GOP, even though registered Democrats are the largest proportion of county residents, followed by Independents and Republicans. According to the most recent three-month average change in voter registration, Democrats will lose their top spot by next May. Independents will take over the No. 1 spot by May next year, with Republicans following in October 2025.

Levine Cava might be asking Florida Democrats for support at the same moment she is announcing that Miami-Dade would become a red county.

Ulvert told people privately that he believes a Florida Democrat will have a better chance of winning the White House if Donald Trump is elected in November. This could trigger the “blue-wave” backlash which put Andrew Gillum, a Democrat, within 30,000 votes of winning DeSantis’ first term in 2018.

Some see the victory of Vice President Kamala Harris, in November, as the best chance for Florida Democrats to get the national funding needed to rebuild voter registers ahead of Harris’ reelection bid in 2028.

Ashley Gantt is a Miami-Dade Democrat who was reelected Tuesday to the Florida House. She said that Levine Cava, a former child advocate lawyer and director of a Foster-Care Program, would be well-liked in Florida. She expected Florida voters would be ready for change in two years, even though the Sunshine State is becoming increasingly red.

Gantt is also a client of Ulvert. They’ll be more open-minded. “I definitely think she can win.”

Analysis of the Miami-Dade Mayor vote

Levine Cava, the only Democrat running in a race that saw both Democratic and Republican voters cast approximately 41% of their ballots this summer.

She needed independent support to win over some GOP voters.

Manny Cid took second place with 23%, and Alexander Otaola came in third at 12%. Alexander Otaola is the Republican host of an online conservative show that focuses on Cuban Americans.

Miami Herald data from precincts showed that Levine Cava was the Democratic leader.

Levine Cava won 85% of votes in precincts with at least 50% of Democrats, while Cid and Otaola each got 5%.

Cid took the Republican precincts, with Levine Cava taking about 33%. Otaola came in third with just under 20% of the vote.

Levine Cava won the most votes in precincts where independent voters were a majority. She received 65% of the votes to Cid’s 22.5%.

According to analysis by the Herald, in Hialeah – a Republican stronghold of Miami-Dade – Cid came out slightly ahead of the Democratic Mayor, 34% to 33 %.

Cid easily won Miami Lakes, with 53% to Levine Cava’s 34%.

Cid stated that Levine Cava’s numbers largely reflect her overwhelming financial advantage as incumbent mayor.

He said, “The people who knew me the best – we won them by a substantial margin.” Cid stated that the results show his message and track record are solid but “there wasn’t enough money to get the word out.”

Emiliano Antunez, Cid’s campaign consultant, said