Michigan’s U.S. Senate race starts as a ‘toss-up,’ poll finds

A new poll shows that the closely watched race to fill Michigan’s U.S. Senate open seat has started this election year in a “toss up” with no candidate commanding a significant advantage and an undetermined number of independent voters.

The Detroit News commissioned a survey of 600 Michigan voters to find out their opinions on the issue. The respondents were split between three Republican candidates — former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, former U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers, and Peter Meijer.

All three are basically a toss up. Richard Czuba, a pollster from the Lansing Glengariff Group who conducted the survey, said that James Craig is about 2 points ahead at this point. “I think it’s because there has been an increase in name recognition out of Southeast Michigan.” “But with the other two, it’s dead equal.” “They’re all within error margin.”

The margin of error for the poll conducted from Jan. 2-6 was plus or minus four percentage points.


According to a poll conducted by The News/WDIV, Craig is leading Slotkin 38%-36%. 27% of likely voters in the general election are undecided.

Slotkin is on 38%, Rogers 37%, and the remaining 25% are undecided.

Both candidates were tied in the Slotkin-Meijer race, with 36% of voters undecided and 28% undecided.

The U.S. Senate election in Michigan is a coin toss

According to a recent Detroit News/WDIV TV (Channel 4) survey, the U.S. Senate election in Michigan is a close race between Democratic frontrunner U.S. Rep Elissa slotkin and three leading Republican candidates: former Detroit police chief James Craig, and former U.S. Reps. Mike Rogers, and Peter Meijer.

In the survey’s generic test of the U.S. Senate election, Democrats had a narrow lead of 2.7 percentage points over Republicans of 37.4% compared to 34.7%. 23.5% said they were undecided and that their decision would depend on which candidate was on the ballot.

Czuba stated that “this U.S. Senate Race right now looks like I would expect a Michigan open U.S. Senate to look at this point — some top-tier candidates who are beginning to build their names ID on a state basis.”

“It is those undecided independents — a large bloc of independents out there.” It’s what we expected: The candidates would go and win their nominations, then race to the middle.

Slotkin of Holly is a former Pentagon official who represents a swing-district in Congress.

Craig, a Detroiter, served as Detroit’s chief of police for eight years before retiring in 2021. He then ran for governor in the year 2022, but was disqualified from the primary election in August 2022 due to fraudulent nomination signatures.

Rogers of Brighton represented a mid Michigan congressional district from 2001 to 2015, and was chairman of the House Intelligence Committee between 2011 and 2015.

Meijer is a Grand Rapids Township resident and a former Army officer. He represented Grand Rapids in Congress for a term, before losing the GOP primary of 2022 to John Gibbs. He is the great grandson of Meijer supermarkets founder Hendrik Meijer.

It’s still so early

Michigan is in the running for a Senate seat this year, after U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) decided to not run for a second six-year term. This year’s contest in Michigan is likely to be costly and competitive. It could decide which party will control the Senate, which is currently divided. Democrats hold a narrow majority.

Glengariff Group tested only head-to-head matches between Slotkin, the three Republican politicians and a general election survey largely focusing on the Michigan presidential race.

Ted Goodman is a senior advisor to Craig. He said that Chief James Craig leads the race due to his success in law enforcement and authenticity. While other candidates will boast about their support of the Washington political class, and their wealthy donors to whom they will be accountable, Chief James Craig cannot be bought. He will not be dictated to by anyone but the people in Michigan.

The Democratic candidates for the Senate Primary include Hill Harper, an actor and author from Detroit, Nasser Beidoun, a businessman from Dearborn, Leslie Love, a former Detroit state representative, and Zack Burns, an attorney in Ann Arbor. Republican candidates include Nikki Snyder of the State Board of Education, Alexandria Taylor of an attorney and Michael Hoover of a businessman.

The News interviewed multiple poll respondents this week who said that they did not know the Senate candidates and were not interested in the race.

Alex Korte of Grand Rapids (a self-described Independent voter) said, “It is so early in this game.”

Korte recognized the names of two candidates: Meijer had been his Grand Rapids area congressman for one term, before losing the Republican primaries in 2022. Slotkin was also stationed in the U.S. Capitol after the January 6, 2021 insurrection as a Michigan National Guard member.

“The Meijer Family is a kind of staple in the region, and they enjoy a great deal of recognition and goodwill right off the bat. They are very popular. “He’s a former military man, which gives me a greater affinity for him,” Korte said, who has served in Afghanistan.

“But we are more sceptical about CIA people,” Korte added, referring to Slotkin, a CIA analyst. “That’s one thing I dislike about her. You never know what to expect from people who work in intelligence agencies.”

Korte stated that he would lean towards voting for Meijer. However, he cautioned that he has not yet examined the policy positions of the candidates.

Jim Potter, an open-road truck driver and Republican living in Lowell who is 61 years old, said that he had supported Craig in his unsuccessful bid for governor in 2022, and would support him again if he were to run for Senate.

“I like him a lot. I watched some of his speeches. “He’s an excellent conservative who is good on law enforcement, and I share the same principles as he does,” said Potter.

Potter was also familiar with Meijer. His wife, who is a teacher, told him that Meijer had been used in her class. The other candidates, however, were not familiar names.

Dave Dulio, a political scientist at Oakland University, said that the candidates had a lot of work to do in order to identify their names among potential voters. Even Slotkin is below 50%. It’s a large group of people you can introduce yourself to.

Slotkin has the biggest name in the country according to the survey.