Both parties had warned months ago of a red wave among voters of colour, and predicted that the GOP would continue to build on the gains made in 2020’s presidential race. However, despite every racial group moving in the right direction this year, particularly among men, it was not enough to meet expectations.

Multiple strategists warned that Democrats should not declare victory on this front and move on. They should also be cautious about moving on without addressing any erosion in the party’s core constituencies. This should be taken seriously, they said.

Terrance Woodbury is the CEO of HIT Strategies, progressive research firm. He credited younger voters as well as new voters from 2018 to 2020 for voting for Democrats on Tuesday, in defiance of earlier projections.

He stated that “Our initial conclusion is that although Democrats have stopped the bleeding among the people of color, they haven’t reversed it.”

According to exit polls by Edison Research and major networks, Democrats won Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Pacific Islander voters in 2022’s midterm elections. However, the majority of white voters and Native Americans voted for Republicans.

Comparatively to 2018, Hispanic support for the GOP increased 10 and 17 points, respectively, and Black voters moved 4 points to its right. Comparing 2020, a presidential election year fuelled by a push for former President Donald Trump out of office, the movement in favor Republicans is in the single figures.

Even further back, Hispanic and Black support for Democrats dropped to similar low levels in late 1990s.

More than 15,000 people participated in the exit polls. The margin of error was plus/minus 2 points. Subgroups had higher margins of error. The exit polls are preliminary. Some states are still counting votes. More complex reports won’t likely be available for several months. The numbers give us a good idea of how and why people of color voted in this election.

‘La ola roja’ versus ‘el murmullo’

This election cycle was more difficult than ever because of the GOP’s hopes for gains and the fact that Latinos have recently become the country’s second largest voting bloc.

Both parties were heavily focused on Hispanic voters. They blew past previous records in Spanish-language advertising buys and held more events to court Latino voters. Hispanics experienced the second-largest shift in voters of color after these campaign efforts. Democrats’ overall margins dropped 9 points since 2018, and 21 points among Latino men. Comparatively to 2020, the Democratic margin for Latinos fell by 5 points.

Giancarlo SOPO, a Republican communications strategist, stated that all signs point to a shift in Hispanics and it’s very encouraging for the future Republican Party. “I am optimistic about where we are going, but I have no illusions that it’ll be easy.”

People involved in the fight to win Latino votes say that Republicans can make more progress if they use better messaging. Sopo stated that the party must be more comfortable speaking with Hispanics outside their traditional “their wheelhouse”. Polls consistently show climate change and health care as top priorities for Latino voters. Republicans can improve their cross-cultural outreach in these areas.

Clarissa Martinez de Castro, vice president of UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative echoed the calls for both parties’ long-term outreach to Hispanic voters. She said that Democrats have plenty of room to win Latino voters’ support, but they must also strengthen their message in areas such as the economy.

Latinos came out in large numbers to vote for Gov. Marco Rubio (GOP) and Sen. Marco Rubio (GOP). According to preliminary exit polling, Ron DeSantis won reelection in Florida. However, slight majority of Hispanic voters voted for Democratic Senate candidates in battleground states.

After overcoming difficult Republican Latina opposition, the House’s Democratic Representatives Henry Cuellar (House) and Vicente Gonzalez (Republican House), won victories after they represented two of Texas’ deeply Hispanic border areas. Republican Monica De La Cruz, a Latina from the region, won a 9-point redrawn district.

Gonzalez defeated Mayra Flores (GOP Rep.), whose bold promises of great returns for South Texas Republican Party were traded in for an accusatory tone after the election.

Flores wrote that “The RED WAVE didn’t happen” after midnight on election night. She blamed Republicans and Independent voters who stayed home. Flores wrote in capital letters, “Do not complain about results if your part was not done!”

Experts believe both sides have the potential to build upon these results with Latinos by 2024, if they are willing to do the work.

Gabe Sanchez, vice-president of BSP Research, stated that “Republicans shouldn’t be satisfied with their performance.” He said that the GOP didn’t win nearly as many House seats as they had projected, partly because of the Latino gains predicted. Sanchez stated that although it was a good night for Democrats they cannot celebrate the numbers as much.

Black voters continue to support Democrats with a large majority

Democratic campaigns and consultants are worried about a possible surge in support for conservatives among Black voters or lower turnouts in key swing states. Black men are expected to fill a larger gap between the incumbent governor and the candidate for Georgia’s governor. Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams, the Democratic candidate.

Abrams won 90 percent of Black vote while Kemp took in three-quarters of the white vote. These numbers are similar to the exit polling results from the 2018 contest in which Abrams won 94 percent of Black vote and Kemp took 73 percent.

According to preliminary exit polling, Black voters are still the most loyal supporters of Democrats. Their vote share has dropped by 4 points from 2018 and 1 point since the last presidential campaign.

HIT Strategies’ Woodbury said that he had warned repeatedly against Democrats losing support with Black voters, especially men. He said that Abrams and other candidates had done a better job connecting with male voters of colour after Election Day. Woodbury says that even without the enthusiasm boost, Black voters would have voted for Democrats, even if they had not.

Woodbury stated that when we engage [Black voters] in the same way that we engage them by texting them every single day, making them feel valued and important, it gives rise to darkness and a cynicism which validates the frus.