The midterm election will be decided by those who don’t love President Joe Biden, but don’t hate them.

According to the most recent POLITICO/Morning Consult survey, 43 percent of Americans approve and 55 percent disagree with President Obama’s approval rating. Deeper analysis of the data shows that Biden approvers will vote in close to equal numbers for Democrats this fall while those who “strongly disagree” with him are almost unanimously aligned with Republicans.

The remaining 15% of voters who “somewhat disapprove of” Biden are stuck in middle. Where they break with just two weeks to go could determine whether Democrats retain the Senate or what happens to the rest of the races on the ballot.

44 percent of those who disapprove of Biden are planning to vote for Democrats in Congress this November. Three quarters of them intend to vote for Republicans. An additional 21 percent of them say they are still undecided – a larger group than the one with firmer opinions about Biden’s work performance.

This week’s poll showed that Congressional Democrats had a slight advantage among voters. Only 47 percent said they would support a Democratic candidate and 42 percent said they would support a Republican. This compares to the 45 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of Republicans in the POLITICO/Morning Consult survey.

This 5-point advantage for Democrats is different from other public polling, which has results that range from tight midterm races to small GOP leads. What is consistent is Biden’s approval rating, which has settled in the lower 40s. Those voters who have a negative view of Biden, even if they are not strident, will determine the margin of victory.

The generic ballot shows that 92 percent of those who approve of Biden vote for congressional Democrats. Those who approve somewhat of Biden support Democrats almost as strongly, with 82 percent support. Meanwhile, 85 per cent of those who strongly disagree with Biden will vote for the Republican candidate.

15% of the respondents to the poll disapprove somewhat of Biden, which includes equal parts of men and women. These voters include a healthy 13 percent of Democrats and 20 percent of independents, along with 13 percent of Republicans.

These voters had only minor differences in their education and income. However, people younger than 34 were more likely to be in the “somewhat disapprove” category. Voters who identified themselves as Hispanic or “Other” were also more likely to disapprove of Biden than those who identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino. Around one quarter of both groups said they somewhat disapprove.

POLITICO/Morning Consult polled 2,005 voters between Oct. 21 and 23. There was a plus-or-minus of 2 percentage points error.

A majority of voters believe that former President Donald Trump should be required to answer a subpoena. This would require him to testify as well as share documents with the congressional panel investigating the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan 6. Officially, the subpoena was issued last week.

Sixty-six per cent of voters believed Trump should testify. Of those, 48 percent said “yes definitely.” And 68% said he should share documents with the committee.

Bipartisan support for the congressional subpoena was strong, but Democrats had significantly greater support. Approximately 90 percent of Democrats said that they believe Trump should testify before the committee. The majority of independent voters (63 percent) and 42 percent of GOP voters agreed.

More bad news for Democrats: 68 percent of respondents to the poll said that they believe the U.S. is in recession, while 19% said they didn’t believe so. These percentages were identical to last week’s POLITICO/Morning Consult survey.

A majority of voters stated that they prioritize economic issues in deciding who to vote for. 46 percent said it was their top concern.

Voters give Biden a lower score than Trump for immigration. 49% of respondents, including 16% of Democrats, said that the U.S.’s immigration system had gotten worse under Biden. Only 19% of voters thought the immigration system was improving.

According to the poll, 43 percent thought Trump’s immigration system was better. This includes 80 percent who are Republicans, 14 percent who are Democrats, and 36 percent who were independents. Three-quarters of the respondents said that things had gotten worse under Trump, which includes a majority of Democrats as well as 8% of GOP voters.