British Prime Minister Sunak avoids wipeout in key elections
The Conservative Party of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunder’s government lost two seats in the British Parliament that were strategically important on Friday, but they unexpectedly kept Boris Johnson’s old constituency. This was a blow to the Labour Party.
Sunak has some breathing room after the Conservatives narrowly won Johnson’s seat. He can now try to narrow Labour’s huge lead in polls, by reducing high inflation and easing a cost of living crisis ahead of a national elections expected next year.
Sunak’s immediate reaction was to praise the victory as proof that the national elections were not “done deals”. He told reporters in a café of his constituency: “The message that I take from this is that we must double down, stick with our plan, and deliver for the people.”
The scale of this challenge was illustrated by the loss of Selby and Ainsty, a once-safe Conservative parliamentary seat in northeast England. Labour defeated the largest Conservative majority since World War Two at a recent by-election.
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Labour leader Keir starmer said the victory demonstrated “just how strong the demand for change was”.
Sunak was able to avoid becoming the first British politician in over 50 years to lose three consecutive by-elections in a single day.
Former Conservative minister David Jones said to Reuters that his party must now push economic policies in order to regain support in areas where it has traditionally been strong. He said that there was still time, as the election is 18 months away.
Sunak, former finance minister and investment banking, has used his technocratic leadership in an attempt to restore Conservative credibility. A series of scandals forced Johnson to resign last year as Prime Minister, and economic turmoil caused his successor, Liz Truss to quit within six weeks.
It is expected that he will reshuffle the senior ministers in his cabinet soon, to select his team for the next elections.
The Conservatives were prepared for the possibility that they could lose all three seats due to high inflation, stagnant economic growth, rising mortgage rates and industrial unrest, as well as long wait times in the state-run healthcare system.
SAFETY FIRST STATEMENT
Sunak’s Conservatives trail Labour in national opinion polls by around 20 points. This suggests that the ruling party may find it hard to win its fifth consecutive election.
Labour’s defeat in Uxbridge, however, shows that it may struggle to achieve a majority within parliament.
John Curtice said that the Uxbridge results suggested the most probable outcome of a nationwide vote would be a hung Parliament. Starmer’s “safety-first, ming vase” strategy might also see more debate in the party.
Starmer was criticized by some members of his own party for taking a stern stance regarding public finances. He refused to offer any uncosted proposals and dropped policies that he believed a Labour-led government would not be able to afford.
Curtice, a BBC reporter, said: “The tide has not yet turned for the Conservatives. They still have a very long way to travel before it looks like they have any chance to remain in power following the next general elections.”
FRAGILITY IN THE LABOUR FORCE?
Johnson announced the Uxbridge bye-election after his shock resignation from parliament last month. He was found to be misleading in his statements about parties held at Downing Street when there was a coronavirus outbreak. Johnson denied misleading Parliament.
Steve Tuckwell said that the Conservatives’ victory was due to local factors rather than national ones. He cited the Labour Mayor of London extending the ultra low emission zone (ULEZ), which included suburban areas like Uxbridge, meaning some voters were forced to pay more money for their vehicles.
One Conservative legislator said that the opposition to ULEZ could be a win for the party, and help their candidate in the London mayoral election in May.
Other results revealed the Conservatives’ vulnerability on two fronts. The rural Selby constituency in northern England was lost, as well as a seat in southwest England, which is a traditional Conservative stronghold.
In the general elections of 2019, the Conservatives won big majorities in both.
Labour won Selby & Ainsty, in Yorkshire, by 4,000 votes. The Conservatives were unable to defend their majority of 20,137. Lawmakers claimed that Conservative supporters stayed home. The seat was vacant after an ally to Johnson resigned as a show of solidarity with the former Prime Minister.
In Somerton-Frome, southwest England, the liberal democrats were able to defeat a Conservative majority after a third MP resigned, this time over accusations of sexual harassment and drug use.
Curtice said Labour’s loss in Uxbridge showed the “potential vulnerability” of its lead in the polls, while the Conservatives continued to lose voters in Southern areas.
He said that the results of the election have left the leaders of the two major political parties with “something to consider”.
