Democrats are becoming more concerned that Florida, once a nation-leading swing state, could slip away as empowered Republicans capitalize on cultural divisiveness and demographic shifts in key contests for governorship and the U.S. Senate.

The anxiety was evident last week at a golf cart parade by Democrats featuring Senator candidate Val Demings at The Villages. The Villages is a retirement community located just north of Interstate 4. Some Democrats feel more isolated in a once politically diverse area of the state, where elections were often decided.

Sue Sullivan, 77 years old, said that she was afraid of the state’s rightward shift. “There are very few Democrats here.”

Demings, a former Orlando police chief who was challenged by Republican Senator Marco Rubio, admitted in an interview that her party’s midterm message wasn’t as well received as she had hoped.

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She stated that “we have to do better at telling our stories and clearly showing who’s really on the side for people who have got to go to work each day.”

This frustration is the result of almost a decade’s Republican inroads. Candidates have used deeply conservative economic and social messages to create a coalition that includes rural voters, Latinos, and Cuban Americans. After Barack Obama was twice supported by the state, Donald Trump’s victory here in 2016 marked the beginning of the change. Trump won Florida by over 3 percentage points even though he lost the White House in 2020. This is a remarkable feat in a state that has seen elections frequently decided by less than one percentage point.

To rally Democrats, President Joe Biden will be in the state on Nov. 1, just one week before Election Day. Demings stated that she had spoken to the president twice about working together on campaigning, but could not confirm any joint appearances. Charlie Crist, Democratic nominee for governor, stated that he would attend a private fundraising event with Biden on the morning of the rally but wasn’t certain if they would be appearing together in public.

Crist stated in an interview that “if we could squeeze in some public airtime…that’d be wonderful thing I would appreciate.”

The GOP remains confident that it will continue to win, even in long-held Democratic strongholds. Some Republicans believe the party could win Miami-Dade County. This is a possibility that was once impossible and would effectively end the Democrats’ chances of winning in statewide elections, including the presidential election.

In southwest Florida’s Lee County (a stronghold of Republicans), not even a severe hurricane seems to have slowed down the GOP’s momentum. Republicans and Democrats both privately believe that Hurricane Ian, which killed more than 100 people, may have contributed to Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ appeal has been broadened. He’ll be participating in a debate against Crist Monday. In which he will likely highlight his state-strengthening during a crisis.

The 44-year-old Republican governor, however, has focused much of his first term on sensitive social issues. He signed new laws that ban abortions at 15 weeks gestation with no exceptions for incest or rape, and he also blocked critical race theory from many Florida schools. He also took millions from major league baseball teams that stood up against gun violence.

DeSantis sent dozens of Venezuelans from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard on the eve before the hurricane. This was to draw attention to illegal immigration at America’s border with Mexico.

Crist, who was a former governor and congressman, said that some voters may “dig” DeSantis’ focus on cultural issues. However, he noted that at least one Hispanic radio host had compared DeSantis with former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.

“Customarily people move to the middle when you get out of a primaries. Crist stated that his Republican opponent is clearly not doing this.

To the horror of many Democrats DeSantis may become the first Floridian governor’s race winner by more than one point since 2006. This kind of performance could lift Rubio’s chances of winning the U.S. Senate race while also helping the GOP win up to 20 of the state’s 28 U.S. House seat.

His allies expect that DeSantis will win as big as expected and would have the political capital necessary to launch a successful presidential campaign for 2024, regardless of whether Trump is running.

Manny Diaz, chair of the state Democratic Party, said that DeSantis’ insistence on using his office’s power to attack rivals politically was “shocking” and “scary”.

DeSantis declined an interview request but has since found success in challenging the established wisdom.

Four years ago, he defeated Andrew Gillum by 32,436 votes from more than 8.2 millions cast. This margin was so small that it required a recount.

In the four years that have followed, Republicans have erased the voter registration advantage Florida Democrats held for decades. Democrats had a 263,269 vote advantage when registration closed for 2018. On Sept. 30, Republicans held a lead in voting of 292,533 votes — nearly 556,000 more than DeSantis’ first term.

“We are no longer a swing country. “We’re actually annihilating Democrats,” stated Joe Gruters, Florida GOP Chairman and a key DeSantis ally.

He claims that his party has been focused on traditional issues like gas prices and inflation. However, Gruters have leaned into cultural battles, especially the opposition of Florida GOP to sexual education, and LGBTQ issues at elementary schools, which have shaped DeSantis’ tenure.

Gruters stated, “I don’t want anyone else teaching me about the birds and bees and gender fluidity problems,”

Both parties’ strategists believe that Florida’s political shift is due in part to many factors. However, there is consensus that Republicans have benefited greatly from the influx of new voters since DeSantis became the leader of the GOP resistance against the pandemic-related public healthcare measures.

According to U.S. Census estimates, 667 people moved into the state every day, on average, between 2020-2021.

People who live in rural areas in north Florida and are remnants of the Deep South can partly explain the Republican shift. They have changed their registration to reflect their voting habits. While many people have registered as Democrats, they did so because their forefathers did. However, the so-called Dixiecrats voted solidly Republican.

However, this does not account for the Democrats’ fall challenge.

The trend is particularly concerning for Democrats in Miami-Dade County.