Democrats’ dreams of rebound turn into a nightmare entering final two-week sprint to Election Day
House Democrats’ summer optimism that they could defend their small majority is now overshadowed by a new reality: The House Democrats are entering an Election Day buzzsaw.
Political handicappers see Republican gains for the House as a foregone conclusion. Only thing that remains to be determined is the size of the governing majority for President Biden’s remaining third and fourth years.
J. stated that “It appears like Democrats had an excellent summer and Republicans could have a great fall.” Miles Coleman, University of Virginia Center for Politics predicts that Republicans will win at least 15 seats.
The Cook Political Report’s ratings highlight the challenge facing House Democrats in this election cycle.
Democrats are protecting 21 of the 31 races that were ranked “toss ups”. Even worse, four of the Democratic-held seats are “likely Republican” and five more are held by Democrats.
Republicans defend only two seats rated as “lean Democrat” by the American Federation of Teachers.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan campaign tracker, has compiled a breakdown showing 19 “toss up” seats, 13 of which are held in the hands of Democrats. The tracker indicates that Republicans are on course to win at least five more Democratic-held seats.
Mr. Coleman stated that Virginia could be a barometer of Democratic losses.
Three Virginia Democrats are in different levels of political trouble.
The most likely to be elected is Elaine Luria, Republican-leaning 2nd Congressional District. Other candidates include Reps. Abigail Spanberger, Democrat-leaning 7th Congressional District, and Jennifer Wexton, Democrat-strong 10th Congressional District.
If any of the three lose their elections, Republican wins could be swept across the country.
The Republican Party is optimistic about its prospects.
Michael McAdams, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (the campaign arm of the House Republicans), stated that “Republicans possess the candidates, message, and the resources needed to take back the House.” “The American people are tired of Democrats’ record in rising prices, high crime, and a border crisis that only gets worse each day,” McAdams said.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. This committee oversees the campaigns for House Democrats.
“I know that there are a lot of people who will be writing our obituary in the coming days. In a recent interview, Mr. Maloney stated that it was time to vote. “Wherever we have been present, and where we care about what is happening in our country, we have won: in upstate New York, Alaska, for goodness sake, in Kansas.
The New York Democrat stated, “Don’t tell my this can’t be done.” “So much is at stake.”
If Republicans win control of the House, it will undergo a major facelift just four years after Democrats won the majority in the midterm elections under the Trump administration.
Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican House Minority Leader, is the front-runner for the position of speaker. Rep. Jim Jordan (an Ohio Republican firebrand) will be the Judiciary Committee chairman when Congress meets in January.
He has pledged to fight against what he considers an overpoliticized Justice Department or FBI. According to him, Alejandro Mayorkas, Homeland Security Secretary, “deserves” to face impeachment for his lax supervision of the southern border.
So, in other words, Mr. Biden won’t get the child-glove treatment by Republican-led House Committees.
A few months back, Democrats were more optimistic about their election prospects than they were a few months ago. The increase in Mr. Biden’s approval, a drop in gas prices, and a surge in activist energy following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade’s national abortion rights gave them a boost over the summer. The Democrats saw this as a way to defend their majority.
The sense of hope was enhanced by the special election win of Rep. Pat Ryan in upstate New York, and the defeat in Kansas of an abortion referendum.
His approval rating of Mr. Biden, which was never above the waterline in his favor, has been lowered by persistent economic challenges and general voter frustration with rising costs and inflation.
The generic ballot question is a measure of how voters respond to pollsters asking whether they intend to vote for a unnamed Democrat in their congressional district. It also shows that Republicans have surpassed Democrats in terms of their lead on the Republican side.
Real Clear Politics’ average of generic polls shows that Republicans have a 3 point advantage over Democrats.
At this point in 2018, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than 7 percentage points on the generic ballot question. They went on to win 41 seats. After leading the generic ballot poll by three points in the previous cycle, the Republicans had won 13 seats.
However, Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, has shown confidence. Punchbowl News was informed by a California Democrat that she believes that Democrats will defend their majority following the attack on the U.S. Capitol Jan. 6, 2021.
When Mrs. Pelosi was asked about the comparisons to 2010, when she believed Democrats would win 63 more seats than Republicans, she replied, “I don’t know what that means.” That’s what nobody has ever told me.”