HALLOWEEN SCARE: Dems’ midterm fears worsen as election forecasters shift more races toward GOP in final weeks
With less than two weeks until Election Day, Democrats across the country face a more grim outlook. Election forecasters continue to tip more races in favor of Republicans.
These shifts took place in many races that were once considered out of reach of Republicans. However, voters’ concerns about inflation, violence, and the border crisis are growing and Democrats are starting to lose sight of their hopes of maintaining majorities at both the Houses of Congress and in some governorships.
Fox News’ Power Rankings made Tuesday’s changes to five key races. They were all centered in the Northeastern U.S.A, which has been trending more Democratic over recent years.
These changes include, notably the New York gubernatorial race between Democratic Governor. Kathy Hochul and Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin shifted from “solid Democratic to “likely Democratic” and the race for the 17th Congressional District between Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman) and Republican Mike Lawler, which shifted form “lean Democratic to a tossup.
Other changes were New York’s 4th Congressional District being changed from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic,” New York’s 22nd Congressional District being tossed-up to “leans Republican” and New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District becoming “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic.”
Fox believes Republicans are the better option and could win between 216 House seats in the worst scenario and 249 House seats in the best scenario. To win a majority, the party will need 218 seats.
It also rates the control of Senate as a toss up.
Five key House ratings were also changed by the University of Virginia Center for Politics this week. This included in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, where Republican Lori Chavez DeRemer was partnered with Democrat Jamie McLeod Skinner. As homelessness and the current drug crisis increase concerns about quality of life, Republicans are gaining surprising momentum in deep-blue states.
The forecaster, like Fox News, shifted the race of New York’s 22nd Congressional District to “leans Republican” and also California’s 27th Congressional District to a “leans Republican” as well as New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District to “leans Republican.” New York’s 25th Congressional District was changed from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic”
Forecaster said that Republicans would win control of the House in November with a gain of “somewhere between the high teens and low 20s.” Overall control of Senate is a toss-up.
Cook Political Report had the most races changed this week. This included a significant shift in Arizona’s heated Senate race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (Democrat) and Blake Masters (Republican). The race was shifted from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up.”
The forecaster, like Fox News and University of Virginia, changed New York’s 17th Congressional District to a “leans Democratic” to a “toss-up”, but also included a variety of races that were not in the other reports.
It shifted California’s 49th Congressional District to a “leans Democratic.” Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District to a “leans Democratic.” Virginia’s 7th Congressional District to a “lean’s Democratic.” Virginia’s 10th Congressional District to “solid Democratic” and “likely Democratic.” Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District went from “leans Republican to “likely Republican.”
Forecaster said that Republicans would win control of the House, with gains of between 12 and 25 seats. The Senate will remain a toss-up.
Despite the positive outlook of Republicans, Democrats had a few races that went their way this week.
Fox News’ Power Rankings shows that Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race shifted away from “solid Republican to “likely Republican,” while Cook Political Report shifts AK-AL to “toss up” to make it more Democratic. IA-02 went from “likely Republican to “leans Republican,” KS03 went from tossup to being “leans Democratic,” and NC-01 to “likely Democratic.”