Top JPMorgan strategist includes Biden dropping out among 2024 surprises

For months, political pundits from both sides have speculated whether or not President Biden would withdraw from the 2024 race for the presidency due to increased scrutiny regarding his age and declining poll numbers. A top bank analyst has suggested that the possibility shouldn’t be ruled.

Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management’s market and investment strategy listed Biden’s withdrawal from the race as “one of his 10 predicted surprises” in his 2024 “Pillow Talk”.

Cembalest doesn’t usually include a list of top ten surprises. He wrote, however, that he included one this year, “only,” as a tribute to the late Morgan Stanley analyst Byron Wien who, before his death last year, used to compile his own. Cembalest didn’t reveal how likely the predictions are, but did say that “they were an experiment in thinking contrary to the grain in an industry dominated largely by consensus.”

The strategist predicted that Biden would withdraw from the race between Super Tuesday, March 5, and the November elections. He also said that the president’s health was the main reason for the withdrawal. The Democratic National Committee will then nominate a candidate to replace Biden.

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He wrote: “Biden’s approval rating is low for a president who has created 10% jobs since his inauguration. However, this figure is a by-product because his inauguration coincided with the rollout COVID vaccinations and the reopening of the US economy.”

Cembalest is not the only one to suggest that Biden could withdraw from the race in 2024.

The strategist referred to a November note in which he explained what would happen if Biden or Trump – “two elderly citizens” – dropped out for health reasons. Cembalest’s hypothetical example used California Gov. Gavin Newsom would replace Biden as the Democratic Party nominee.

FOX Business’ comment request to the Biden-Harris Campaign was not immediately responded by the campaign.